Recent National Weather Service and model guidance indicates the overnight low for Los Angeles on September 4 will likely settle in the mid-60s°F, consistent with the marine layer’s typical suppression of radiative cooling under clear to partly cloudy skies and light onshore flow. Official forecasts from the Los Angeles/Oxnord office project lows near 64–65°F at coastal stations such as LAX, aligning with the 1991–2020 climatological average of 64.5°F and recent observations showing 65–66°F minima. The closely matched market probabilities around 64–67°F reflect trader assessment of small uncertainties in marine-layer depth and wind speed, while lower odds on sub-60°F outcomes acknowledge the historical rarity of such readings this early in September absent a strong offshore or trough-driven event. Updated model runs and morning fog observations remain the key near-term drivers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Los Angeles on September 4?
Lowest temperature in Los Angeles on September 4?
64-65°F 50%
55°F or below 49%
74°F or higher 48%
56-57°F 47%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
55°F or below
49%
56-57°F
47%
58-59°F
46%
60-61°F
47%
62-63°F
47%
64-65°F
35%
66-67°F
45%
68-69°F
14%
70-71°F
10%
72-73°F
47%
74°F or higher
48%
64-65°F 50%
55°F or below 49%
74°F or higher 48%
56-57°F 47%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
55°F or below
$0 Vol.
49%
56-57°F
$0 Vol.
47%
58-59°F
$0 Vol.
46%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
47%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
47%
64-65°F
$16 Vol.
35%
66-67°F
$37 Vol.
45%
68-69°F
$71 Vol.
14%
70-71°F
$5 Vol.
10%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
47%
74°F or higher
$0 Vol.
48%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance indicates the overnight low for Los Angeles on September 4 will likely settle in the mid-60s°F, consistent with the marine layer’s typical suppression of radiative cooling under clear to partly cloudy skies and light onshore flow. Official forecasts from the Los Angeles/Oxnord office project lows near 64–65°F at coastal stations such as LAX, aligning with the 1991–2020 climatological average of 64.5°F and recent observations showing 65–66°F minima. The closely matched market probabilities around 64–67°F reflect trader assessment of small uncertainties in marine-layer depth and wind speed, while lower odds on sub-60°F outcomes acknowledge the historical rarity of such readings this early in September absent a strong offshore or trough-driven event. Updated model runs and morning fog observations remain the key near-term drivers.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
Volume
$128End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klaxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance indicates the overnight low for Los Angeles on September 4 will likely settle in the mid-60s°F, consistent with the marine layer’s typical suppression of radiative cooling under clear to partly cloudy skies and light onshore flow. Official forecasts from the Los Angeles/Oxnord office project lows near 64–65°F at coastal stations such as LAX, aligning with the 1991–2020 climatological average of 64.5°F and recent observations showing 65–66°F minima. The closely matched market probabilities around 64–67°F reflect trader assessment of small uncertainties in marine-layer depth and wind speed, while lower odds on sub-60°F outcomes acknowledge the historical rarity of such readings this early in September absent a strong offshore or trough-driven event. Updated model runs and morning fog observations remain the key near-term drivers.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$128End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klaxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and model guidance indicates the overnight low for Los Angeles on September 4 will likely settle in the mid-60s°F, consistent with the marine layer’s typical suppression of radiative cooling under clear to partly cloudy skies and light onshore flow. Official forecasts from the Los Angeles/Oxnord office project lows near 64–65°F at coastal stations such as LAX, aligning with the 1991–2020 climatological average of 64.5°F and recent observations showing 65–66°F minima. The closely matched market probabilities around 64–67°F reflect trader assessment of small uncertainties in marine-layer depth and wind speed, while lower odds on sub-60°F outcomes acknowledge the historical rarity of such readings this early in September absent a strong offshore or trough-driven event. Updated model runs and morning fog observations remain the key near-term drivers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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