Recent forecasts from Environment Canada and other models indicate a daily minimum near 15–17°C for Toronto on September 4, following a cold front and thunderstorms on September 2–3 that shift winds northerly and reduce humidity. Clearer skies overnight promote radiational cooling under light winds, while model spreads in cloud cover and timing of the high-pressure build introduce uncertainty around the exact low. This positions the 14–18°C range as the market focus, with the 34.5% implied probability on 13°C or below reflecting downside risks from stronger cooling and the 29.5% on 23°C or higher capturing potential for limited nocturnal drop if clouds linger. Updated model runs and official briefings will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Toronto on September 4?
Lowest temperature in Toronto on September 4?
13°C or below 89%
23°C or higher 89%
17°C 50%
21°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
13°C or below
89%
14°C
46%
15°C
46%
16°C
46%
17°C
50%
18°C
27%
19°C
26%
20°C
26%
21°C
49%
22°C
48%
23°C or higher
89%
13°C or below 89%
23°C or higher 89%
17°C 50%
21°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
13°C or below
$0 Vol.
89%
14°C
$0 Vol.
46%
15°C
$0 Vol.
46%
16°C
$0 Vol.
46%
17°C
$0 Vol.
50%
18°C
$0 Vol.
27%
19°C
$0 Vol.
26%
20°C
$0 Vol.
26%
21°C
$0 Vol.
49%
22°C
$0 Vol.
48%
23°C or higher
$0 Vol.
89%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from Environment Canada and other models indicate a daily minimum near 15–17°C for Toronto on September 4, following a cold front and thunderstorms on September 2–3 that shift winds northerly and reduce humidity. Clearer skies overnight promote radiational cooling under light winds, while model spreads in cloud cover and timing of the high-pressure build introduce uncertainty around the exact low. This positions the 14–18°C range as the market focus, with the 34.5% implied probability on 13°C or below reflecting downside risks from stronger cooling and the 29.5% on 23°C or higher capturing potential for limited nocturnal drop if clouds linger. Updated model runs and official briefings will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from Environment Canada and other models indicate a daily minimum near 15–17°C for Toronto on September 4, following a cold front and thunderstorms on September 2–3 that shift winds northerly and reduce humidity. Clearer skies overnight promote radiational cooling under light winds, while model spreads in cloud cover and timing of the high-pressure build introduce uncertainty around the exact low. This positions the 14–18°C range as the market focus, with the 34.5% implied probability on 13°C or below reflecting downside risks from stronger cooling and the 29.5% on 23°C or higher capturing potential for limited nocturnal drop if clouds linger. Updated model runs and official briefings will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from Environment Canada and other models indicate a daily minimum near 15–17°C for Toronto on September 4, following a cold front and thunderstorms on September 2–3 that shift winds northerly and reduce humidity. Clearer skies overnight promote radiational cooling under light winds, while model spreads in cloud cover and timing of the high-pressure build introduce uncertainty around the exact low. This positions the 14–18°C range as the market focus, with the 34.5% implied probability on 13°C or below reflecting downside risks from stronger cooling and the 29.5% on 23°C or higher capturing potential for limited nocturnal drop if clouds linger. Updated model runs and official briefings will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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