**Forecast consensus from official sources centers the highest temperature in London on September 2 around 21–22°C, aligning closely with market-implied probabilities that place 21°C at 49.5% and 22°C at 21%.** Numerical weather models, including Met Office guidance, indicate a maximum of 23°C under mostly cloudy skies with southwesterly flow and light rain risk, while detailed hourly projections from sources such as Yr.no show afternoon peaks near 21°C. This range reflects typical early-September conditions moderated by Atlantic maritime air, cloud cover limiting daytime heating, and average highs historically near 21.6°C at London Heathrow. No significant model shifts or anomalous warmth have emerged in the latest runs, keeping lower probabilities on 20°C (20.5%) and 23°C (5.5%) while assigning minimal odds to extremes outside 18–24°C. Traders appear to be weighting the tight clustering of deterministic and ensemble forecasts, with resolution depending on official Met Office or equivalent station readings for the daily maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in London on September 2?
Highest temperature in London on September 2?
21°C 50%
22°C 21%
20°C 21%
19°C 6.6%
NEW
$36,480 Vol.
NEW
$36,480 Vol.
Sep 2, 2026
17°C or below
1%
18°C
1%
19°C
7%
20°C
21%
21°C
50%
22°C
21%
23°C
6%
24°C
2%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
21°C 50%
22°C 21%
20°C 21%
19°C 6.6%
NEW
$36,480 Vol.
NEW
$36,480 Vol.
Sep 2, 2026
17°C or below
$3,732 Vol.
1%
18°C
$2,628 Vol.
1%
19°C
$2,636 Vol.
7%
20°C
$9,265 Vol.
21%
21°C
$5,750 Vol.
50%
22°C
$4,730 Vol.
21%
23°C
$2,674 Vol.
6%
24°C
$2,478 Vol.
2%
25°C
$1,961 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$379 Vol.
<1%
27°C or higher
$245 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from official sources centers the highest temperature in London on September 2 around 21–22°C, aligning closely with market-implied probabilities that place 21°C at 49.5% and 22°C at 21%.**
Numerical weather models, including Met Office guidance, indicate a maximum of 23°C under mostly cloudy skies with southwesterly flow and light rain risk, while detailed hourly projections from sources such as Yr.no show afternoon peaks near 21°C. This range reflects typical early-September conditions moderated by Atlantic maritime air, cloud cover limiting daytime heating, and average highs historically near 21.6°C at London Heathrow.
No significant model shifts or anomalous warmth have emerged in the latest runs, keeping lower probabilities on 20°C (20.5%) and 23°C (5.5%) while assigning minimal odds to extremes outside 18–24°C. Traders appear to be weighting the tight clustering of deterministic and ensemble forecasts, with resolution depending on official Met Office or equivalent station readings for the daily maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
Volume
$36,480End Date
Sep 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from official sources centers the highest temperature in London on September 2 around 21–22°C, aligning closely with market-implied probabilities that place 21°C at 49.5% and 22°C at 21%.**
Numerical weather models, including Met Office guidance, indicate a maximum of 23°C under mostly cloudy skies with southwesterly flow and light rain risk, while detailed hourly projections from sources such as Yr.no show afternoon peaks near 21°C. This range reflects typical early-September conditions moderated by Atlantic maritime air, cloud cover limiting daytime heating, and average highs historically near 21.6°C at London Heathrow.
No significant model shifts or anomalous warmth have emerged in the latest runs, keeping lower probabilities on 20°C (20.5%) and 23°C (5.5%) while assigning minimal odds to extremes outside 18–24°C. Traders appear to be weighting the tight clustering of deterministic and ensemble forecasts, with resolution depending on official Met Office or equivalent station readings for the daily maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$36,480End Date
Sep 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus from official sources centers the highest temperature in London on September 2 around 21–22°C, aligning closely with market-implied probabilities that place 21°C at 49.5% and 22°C at 21%.** Numerical weather models, including Met Office guidance, indicate a maximum of 23°C under mostly cloudy skies with southwesterly flow and light rain risk, while detailed hourly projections from sources such as Yr.no show afternoon peaks near 21°C. This range reflects typical early-September conditions moderated by Atlantic maritime air, cloud cover limiting daytime heating, and average highs historically near 21.6°C at London Heathrow. No significant model shifts or anomalous warmth have emerged in the latest runs, keeping lower probabilities on 20°C (20.5%) and 23°C (5.5%) while assigning minimal odds to extremes outside 18–24°C. Traders appear to be weighting the tight clustering of deterministic and ensemble forecasts, with resolution depending on official Met Office or equivalent station readings for the daily maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions