Forecasts from major models including ECMWF, GFS, and regional sources indicate a mostly clear night on September 3 following a frontal passage, with light northerly or easterly winds of 2–4 m/s and low humidity promoting radiative cooling after daytime highs near 25–28°C. This setup favors minimum temperatures clustering around 11–13°C, consistent with the closely matched market-implied odds. Ensemble spreads show modest uncertainty from slight variations in cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing, while historical September climatology for São Paulo places typical overnight lows near 12°C. Updated model runs and local observations from INMET will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 3?
Lowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 3?
17°C or higher 88%
15°C 73%
16°C 73%
11°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
7°C or below
4%
8°C
4%
9°C
3%
10°C
7%
11°C
50%
12°C
46%
13°C
40%
14°C
37%
15°C
73%
16°C
73%
17°C or higher
88%
17°C or higher 88%
15°C 73%
16°C 73%
11°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
7°C or below
$10 Vol.
4%
8°C
$8 Vol.
4%
9°C
$2 Vol.
3%
10°C
$2 Vol.
7%
11°C
$1 Vol.
50%
12°C
$1 Vol.
46%
13°C
$0 Vol.
40%
14°C
$0 Vol.
37%
15°C
$10 Vol.
73%
16°C
$10 Vol.
73%
17°C or higher
$10 Vol.
88%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecasts from major models including ECMWF, GFS, and regional sources indicate a mostly clear night on September 3 following a frontal passage, with light northerly or easterly winds of 2–4 m/s and low humidity promoting radiative cooling after daytime highs near 25–28°C. This setup favors minimum temperatures clustering around 11–13°C, consistent with the closely matched market-implied odds. Ensemble spreads show modest uncertainty from slight variations in cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing, while historical September climatology for São Paulo places typical overnight lows near 12°C. Updated model runs and local observations from INMET will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 8:28 AM ET
Volume
$54End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 8:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecasts from major models including ECMWF, GFS, and regional sources indicate a mostly clear night on September 3 following a frontal passage, with light northerly or easterly winds of 2–4 m/s and low humidity promoting radiative cooling after daytime highs near 25–28°C. This setup favors minimum temperatures clustering around 11–13°C, consistent with the closely matched market-implied odds. Ensemble spreads show modest uncertainty from slight variations in cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing, while historical September climatology for São Paulo places typical overnight lows near 12°C. Updated model runs and local observations from INMET will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$54End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 8:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecasts from major models including ECMWF, GFS, and regional sources indicate a mostly clear night on September 3 following a frontal passage, with light northerly or easterly winds of 2–4 m/s and low humidity promoting radiative cooling after daytime highs near 25–28°C. This setup favors minimum temperatures clustering around 11–13°C, consistent with the closely matched market-implied odds. Ensemble spreads show modest uncertainty from slight variations in cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing, while historical September climatology for São Paulo places typical overnight lows near 12°C. Updated model runs and local observations from INMET will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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