**Current forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and global models show unsettled conditions on September 1 driven by a broad low-pressure trough and possible weak low-pressure development near Hainan, producing northerly winds of force 4–5 (gusts to 6 on high ground) alongside scattered showers and thunderstorms.** These factors limit daytime heating through persistent cloud cover, evaporative cooling from rain, and reduced solar insolation, keeping the maximum temperature near the historical early-September average of ~30–31 °C at the Observatory. Model consensus clusters the high around 30–31 °C, with slight upward bias possible only if afternoon clearing occurs; stronger northerlies or heavier convection would cap it closer to 29 °C. Traders price the tight 30–31 °C spread (combined >60 % implied probability) because resolution hinges on the precise timing and intensity of rainfall and wind shifts, variables that remain sensitive to the latest model runs and any intensification of the low.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on September 1?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on September 1?
31°C 34%
30°C 27%
29°C 16%
32°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
2%
28°C
5%
29°C
16%
30°C
27%
31°C
34%
32°C
13%
33°C
5%
34°C
4%
35°C or higher
1%
31°C 34%
30°C 27%
29°C 16%
32°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
25°C or below
$110 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$120 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$10 Vol.
2%
28°C
$0 Vol.
5%
29°C
$68 Vol.
16%
30°C
$76 Vol.
27%
31°C
$109 Vol.
34%
32°C
$158 Vol.
13%
33°C
$144 Vol.
5%
34°C
$60 Vol.
4%
35°C or higher
$36 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Current forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and global models show unsettled conditions on September 1 driven by a broad low-pressure trough and possible weak low-pressure development near Hainan, producing northerly winds of force 4–5 (gusts to 6 on high ground) alongside scattered showers and thunderstorms.** These factors limit daytime heating through persistent cloud cover, evaporative cooling from rain, and reduced solar insolation, keeping the maximum temperature near the historical early-September average of ~30–31 °C at the Observatory. Model consensus clusters the high around 30–31 °C, with slight upward bias possible only if afternoon clearing occurs; stronger northerlies or heavier convection would cap it closer to 29 °C. Traders price the tight 30–31 °C spread (combined >60 % implied probability) because resolution hinges on the precise timing and intensity of rainfall and wind shifts, variables that remain sensitive to the latest model runs and any intensification of the low.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 30, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$891End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Current forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and global models show unsettled conditions on September 1 driven by a broad low-pressure trough and possible weak low-pressure development near Hainan, producing northerly winds of force 4–5 (gusts to 6 on high ground) alongside scattered showers and thunderstorms.** These factors limit daytime heating through persistent cloud cover, evaporative cooling from rain, and reduced solar insolation, keeping the maximum temperature near the historical early-September average of ~30–31 °C at the Observatory. Model consensus clusters the high around 30–31 °C, with slight upward bias possible only if afternoon clearing occurs; stronger northerlies or heavier convection would cap it closer to 29 °C. Traders price the tight 30–31 °C spread (combined >60 % implied probability) because resolution hinges on the precise timing and intensity of rainfall and wind shifts, variables that remain sensitive to the latest model runs and any intensification of the low.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$891End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and global models show unsettled conditions on September 1 driven by a broad low-pressure trough and possible weak low-pressure development near Hainan, producing northerly winds of force 4–5 (gusts to 6 on high ground) alongside scattered showers and thunderstorms.** These factors limit daytime heating through persistent cloud cover, evaporative cooling from rain, and reduced solar insolation, keeping the maximum temperature near the historical early-September average of ~30–31 °C at the Observatory. Model consensus clusters the high around 30–31 °C, with slight upward bias possible only if afternoon clearing occurs; stronger northerlies or heavier convection would cap it closer to 29 °C. Traders price the tight 30–31 °C spread (combined >60 % implied probability) because resolution hinges on the precise timing and intensity of rainfall and wind shifts, variables that remain sensitive to the latest model runs and any intensification of the low.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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