Recent short-range forecast models show Mexico City overnight lows near 13–14°C for September 1, aligning with the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 12–14°C. Persistent cloud cover and widespread showers expected that night limit radiative cooling at the city’s 2,240-meter elevation, while southeasterly flow and urban heat retention keep minimums from dropping sharply. Historical September averages of 12–13°C provide a baseline, yet model-to-model differences in precipitation timing and boundary-layer moisture create the observed spread in outcomes. Updated runs from regional and global ensembles over the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten consensus ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Mexico City on September 1?
Lowest temperature in Mexico City on September 1?
15°C 49%
16°C 49%
18°C or higher 41%
13°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
8°C or below
11%
9°C
19%
10°C
25%
11°C
25%
12°C
25%
13°C
26%
14°C
26%
15°C
49%
16°C
49%
17°C
20%
18°C or higher
41%
15°C 49%
16°C 49%
18°C or higher 41%
13°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
8°C or below
$5 Vol.
11%
9°C
$0 Vol.
19%
10°C
$0 Vol.
25%
11°C
$0 Vol.
25%
12°C
$0 Vol.
25%
13°C
$0 Vol.
26%
14°C
$0 Vol.
26%
15°C
$0 Vol.
49%
16°C
$0 Vol.
49%
17°C
$5 Vol.
20%
18°C or higher
$5 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecast models show Mexico City overnight lows near 13–14°C for September 1, aligning with the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 12–14°C. Persistent cloud cover and widespread showers expected that night limit radiative cooling at the city’s 2,240-meter elevation, while southeasterly flow and urban heat retention keep minimums from dropping sharply. Historical September averages of 12–13°C provide a baseline, yet model-to-model differences in precipitation timing and boundary-layer moisture create the observed spread in outcomes. Updated runs from regional and global ensembles over the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten consensus ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 30, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$15End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecast models show Mexico City overnight lows near 13–14°C for September 1, aligning with the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 12–14°C. Persistent cloud cover and widespread showers expected that night limit radiative cooling at the city’s 2,240-meter elevation, while southeasterly flow and urban heat retention keep minimums from dropping sharply. Historical September averages of 12–13°C provide a baseline, yet model-to-model differences in precipitation timing and boundary-layer moisture create the observed spread in outcomes. Updated runs from regional and global ensembles over the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten consensus ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$15End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range forecast models show Mexico City overnight lows near 13–14°C for September 1, aligning with the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 12–14°C. Persistent cloud cover and widespread showers expected that night limit radiative cooling at the city’s 2,240-meter elevation, while southeasterly flow and urban heat retention keep minimums from dropping sharply. Historical September averages of 12–13°C provide a baseline, yet model-to-model differences in precipitation timing and boundary-layer moisture create the observed spread in outcomes. Updated runs from regional and global ensembles over the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten consensus ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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