Latest ensemble forecasts from global and regional models converge on a maximum temperature of 32°C in Shanghai on August 30, driven by persistent subtropical high pressure, southeasterly flows, and moderate moisture that limit both strong heating and significant cooling. Scattered showers and high humidity are expected to cap daytime peaks near this value, consistent with recent observations of 31–33°C amid similar patterns. Traders assign over 75% combined probability to 31–33°C outcomes because model runs show low dispersion around this narrow range, though minor shifts in cloud cover or timing of precipitation could nudge the daily high by 1°C before resolution. Updated guidance from monitoring agencies in the next 48 hours will provide the final observational constraints.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on August 30?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 30?
32°C 57%
31°C 19%
33°C 18%
30°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
4%
31°C
19%
32°C
57%
33°C
18%
34°C
4%
35°C
1%
36°C or higher
<1%
32°C 57%
31°C 19%
33°C 18%
30°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
26°C or below
$68 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$35 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$197 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$161 Vol.
1%
30°C
$143 Vol.
4%
31°C
$529 Vol.
19%
32°C
$1,060 Vol.
57%
33°C
$226 Vol.
18%
34°C
$95 Vol.
4%
35°C
$68 Vol.
1%
36°C or higher
$89 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from global and regional models converge on a maximum temperature of 32°C in Shanghai on August 30, driven by persistent subtropical high pressure, southeasterly flows, and moderate moisture that limit both strong heating and significant cooling. Scattered showers and high humidity are expected to cap daytime peaks near this value, consistent with recent observations of 31–33°C amid similar patterns. Traders assign over 75% combined probability to 31–33°C outcomes because model runs show low dispersion around this narrow range, though minor shifts in cloud cover or timing of precipitation could nudge the daily high by 1°C before resolution. Updated guidance from monitoring agencies in the next 48 hours will provide the final observational constraints.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$2,672End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from global and regional models converge on a maximum temperature of 32°C in Shanghai on August 30, driven by persistent subtropical high pressure, southeasterly flows, and moderate moisture that limit both strong heating and significant cooling. Scattered showers and high humidity are expected to cap daytime peaks near this value, consistent with recent observations of 31–33°C amid similar patterns. Traders assign over 75% combined probability to 31–33°C outcomes because model runs show low dispersion around this narrow range, though minor shifts in cloud cover or timing of precipitation could nudge the daily high by 1°C before resolution. Updated guidance from monitoring agencies in the next 48 hours will provide the final observational constraints.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,672End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from global and regional models converge on a maximum temperature of 32°C in Shanghai on August 30, driven by persistent subtropical high pressure, southeasterly flows, and moderate moisture that limit both strong heating and significant cooling. Scattered showers and high humidity are expected to cap daytime peaks near this value, consistent with recent observations of 31–33°C amid similar patterns. Traders assign over 75% combined probability to 31–33°C outcomes because model runs show low dispersion around this narrow range, though minor shifts in cloud cover or timing of precipitation could nudge the daily high by 1°C before resolution. Updated guidance from monitoring agencies in the next 48 hours will provide the final observational constraints.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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