Recent model consensus from sources like the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles points to a northerly wind shift beginning August 29 that suppresses heat advection from the subtropical ridge, keeping Qingdao's August 30 maximum near the 28–29 °C range that dominates trader probabilities. Sea-surface temperatures in the Yellow Sea around 26–27 °C and increasing low-level moisture support scattered cloud cover that limits full insolation, while urban heat-island effects and boundary-layer mixing introduce small ensemble spread. Historical August climatology shows a 29 °C mean daily maximum, but the post-frontal stabilization favors values at or just below that benchmark rather than the 33 °C+ outlier priced at 23 %. Updated runs on August 29–30 will clarify whether any residual moisture or timing of the wind change nudges the peak into the 30 °C bin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Qingdao on August 30?
Highest temperature in Qingdao on August 30?
33°C or higher 46%
28°C 33%
27°C 31%
29°C 30%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
2%
27°C
31%
28°C
33%
29°C
30%
30°C
18%
31°C
23%
32°C
20%
33°C or higher
46%
33°C or higher 46%
28°C 33%
27°C 31%
29°C 30%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
23°C or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$0 Vol.
1%
25°C
$0 Vol.
1%
26°C
$0 Vol.
2%
27°C
$0 Vol.
31%
28°C
$0 Vol.
33%
29°C
$0 Vol.
30%
30°C
$0 Vol.
18%
31°C
$0 Vol.
23%
32°C
$0 Vol.
20%
33°C or higher
$0 Vol.
46%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources like the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles points to a northerly wind shift beginning August 29 that suppresses heat advection from the subtropical ridge, keeping Qingdao's August 30 maximum near the 28–29 °C range that dominates trader probabilities. Sea-surface temperatures in the Yellow Sea around 26–27 °C and increasing low-level moisture support scattered cloud cover that limits full insolation, while urban heat-island effects and boundary-layer mixing introduce small ensemble spread. Historical August climatology shows a 29 °C mean daily maximum, but the post-frontal stabilization favors values at or just below that benchmark rather than the 33 °C+ outlier priced at 23 %. Updated runs on August 29–30 will clarify whether any residual moisture or timing of the wind change nudges the peak into the 30 °C bin.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources like the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles points to a northerly wind shift beginning August 29 that suppresses heat advection from the subtropical ridge, keeping Qingdao's August 30 maximum near the 28–29 °C range that dominates trader probabilities. Sea-surface temperatures in the Yellow Sea around 26–27 °C and increasing low-level moisture support scattered cloud cover that limits full insolation, while urban heat-island effects and boundary-layer mixing introduce small ensemble spread. Historical August climatology shows a 29 °C mean daily maximum, but the post-frontal stabilization favors values at or just below that benchmark rather than the 33 °C+ outlier priced at 23 %. Updated runs on August 29–30 will clarify whether any residual moisture or timing of the wind change nudges the peak into the 30 °C bin.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from sources like the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles points to a northerly wind shift beginning August 29 that suppresses heat advection from the subtropical ridge, keeping Qingdao's August 30 maximum near the 28–29 °C range that dominates trader probabilities. Sea-surface temperatures in the Yellow Sea around 26–27 °C and increasing low-level moisture support scattered cloud cover that limits full insolation, while urban heat-island effects and boundary-layer mixing introduce small ensemble spread. Historical August climatology shows a 29 °C mean daily maximum, but the post-frontal stabilization favors values at or just below that benchmark rather than the 33 °C+ outlier priced at 23 %. Updated runs on August 29–30 will clarify whether any residual moisture or timing of the wind change nudges the peak into the 30 °C bin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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