Forecast models from MetService and global ensembles indicate a high of 14–15 °C in Wellington on August 28 under strong northerly flow ahead of an approaching trough, with showers developing in the afternoon that may limit further warming. Recent observations show daily maxima near 15–17 °C amid variable northerlies, placing the 15 °C outcome at the center of trader consensus while the 14 °C probability reflects the risk of earlier cloud and rain suppressing the peak. Historical late-August climatology centers around 13–14 °C, so any northward shift in the low or delayed frontal passage could push readings toward 16 °C, whereas stronger southerly winds would favor the lower tail. Updated model runs and MetService briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts for shifts in implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on August 28?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 28?
15°C 54%
14°C 25%
16°C 18%
17°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
10°C or below
2%
11°C
2%
12°C
1%
13°C
2%
14°C
25%
15°C
54%
16°C
18%
17°C
7%
18°C
2%
19°C
1%
20°C or higher
1%
15°C 54%
14°C 25%
16°C 18%
17°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
10°C or below
$5 Vol.
2%
11°C
$4 Vol.
2%
12°C
$7 Vol.
1%
13°C
$19 Vol.
2%
14°C
$2 Vol.
25%
15°C
$28 Vol.
54%
16°C
$19 Vol.
18%
17°C
$0 Vol.
7%
18°C
$27 Vol.
2%
19°C
$31 Vol.
1%
20°C or higher
$31 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from MetService and global ensembles indicate a high of 14–15 °C in Wellington on August 28 under strong northerly flow ahead of an approaching trough, with showers developing in the afternoon that may limit further warming. Recent observations show daily maxima near 15–17 °C amid variable northerlies, placing the 15 °C outcome at the center of trader consensus while the 14 °C probability reflects the risk of earlier cloud and rain suppressing the peak. Historical late-August climatology centers around 13–14 °C, so any northward shift in the low or delayed frontal passage could push readings toward 16 °C, whereas stronger southerly winds would favor the lower tail. Updated model runs and MetService briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts for shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$172End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from MetService and global ensembles indicate a high of 14–15 °C in Wellington on August 28 under strong northerly flow ahead of an approaching trough, with showers developing in the afternoon that may limit further warming. Recent observations show daily maxima near 15–17 °C amid variable northerlies, placing the 15 °C outcome at the center of trader consensus while the 14 °C probability reflects the risk of earlier cloud and rain suppressing the peak. Historical late-August climatology centers around 13–14 °C, so any northward shift in the low or delayed frontal passage could push readings toward 16 °C, whereas stronger southerly winds would favor the lower tail. Updated model runs and MetService briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts for shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$172End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from MetService and global ensembles indicate a high of 14–15 °C in Wellington on August 28 under strong northerly flow ahead of an approaching trough, with showers developing in the afternoon that may limit further warming. Recent observations show daily maxima near 15–17 °C amid variable northerlies, placing the 15 °C outcome at the center of trader consensus while the 14 °C probability reflects the risk of earlier cloud and rain suppressing the peak. Historical late-August climatology centers around 13–14 °C, so any northward shift in the low or delayed frontal passage could push readings toward 16 °C, whereas stronger southerly winds would favor the lower tail. Updated model runs and MetService briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts for shifts in implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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