**Trader consensus has converged on 33°C as Tokyo’s daily maximum** due to consistent official forecasts and observations aligning on that threshold. Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and multiple ensemble models project a peak near 33°C under clear to partly cloudy skies with light southerly flow, typical for late August in the Kanto region where urban heat island effects often add 1–2°C above surrounding areas. Afternoon thunderstorm development is expected but arrives after the diurnal maximum, limiting any cooling impact. With the market at resolution and real-time station data confirming the high, only minor discrepancies between reporting sites or last-minute convective cooling could shift the recorded value, though current conditions make such outcomes highly improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 26?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 26?
33°C 100.0%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
30°C <1%
$62,850 Vol.
$62,850 Vol.
Aug 26, 2026
28°C or below
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
Yes
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C or higher
No
33°C 100.0%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
30°C <1%
$62,850 Vol.
$62,850 Vol.
Aug 26, 2026
28°C or below
$1,369 Vol.
No
29°C
$1,454 Vol.
No
30°C
$1,490 Vol.
No
31°C
$3,047 Vol.
No
32°C
$6,664 Vol.
No
33°C
$15,608 Vol.
Yes
34°C
$5,627 Vol.
No
35°C
$5,692 Vol.
No
36°C
$8,315 Vol.
No
37°C
$6,870 Vol.
No
38°C or higher
$6,713 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus has converged on 33°C as Tokyo’s daily maximum** due to consistent official forecasts and observations aligning on that threshold. Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and multiple ensemble models project a peak near 33°C under clear to partly cloudy skies with light southerly flow, typical for late August in the Kanto region where urban heat island effects often add 1–2°C above surrounding areas. Afternoon thunderstorm development is expected but arrives after the diurnal maximum, limiting any cooling impact. With the market at resolution and real-time station data confirming the high, only minor discrepancies between reporting sites or last-minute convective cooling could shift the recorded value, though current conditions make such outcomes highly improbable.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$62,850End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus has converged on 33°C as Tokyo’s daily maximum** due to consistent official forecasts and observations aligning on that threshold. Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and multiple ensemble models project a peak near 33°C under clear to partly cloudy skies with light southerly flow, typical for late August in the Kanto region where urban heat island effects often add 1–2°C above surrounding areas. Afternoon thunderstorm development is expected but arrives after the diurnal maximum, limiting any cooling impact. With the market at resolution and real-time station data confirming the high, only minor discrepancies between reporting sites or last-minute convective cooling could shift the recorded value, though current conditions make such outcomes highly improbable.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$62,850End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Trader consensus has converged on 33°C as Tokyo’s daily maximum** due to consistent official forecasts and observations aligning on that threshold. Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and multiple ensemble models project a peak near 33°C under clear to partly cloudy skies with light southerly flow, typical for late August in the Kanto region where urban heat island effects often add 1–2°C above surrounding areas. Afternoon thunderstorm development is expected but arrives after the diurnal maximum, limiting any cooling impact. With the market at resolution and real-time station data confirming the high, only minor discrepancies between reporting sites or last-minute convective cooling could shift the recorded value, though current conditions make such outcomes highly improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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