Persistent southwest monsoon flow and associated cloud cover with scattered thunderstorms are capping daytime heating in Manila, keeping forecast highs clustered around 27–29 °C for 29 August. Official PAGASA guidance and multiple global models show widespread stratiform and convective clouds limiting solar insolation while strong southwesterly winds enhance mixing and evaporative cooling, suppressing the usual August climatological maximum near 31 °C. Recent 24-hour observations confirm maximum temperatures already trending 2–4 °C below seasonal norms under similar monsoon conditions. This meteorological setup underpins the market’s concentration of implied probability on the 28–29 °C outcomes, with only modest tail risk for 30 °C or higher if breaks in cloud cover develop late in the day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on August 29?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 29?
29°C 41%
28°C 32%
30°C 14%
27°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
2%
26°C
5%
27°C
9%
28°C
32%
29°C
41%
30°C
14%
31°C
4%
32°C
1%
33°C or higher
1%
29°C 41%
28°C 32%
30°C 14%
27°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
23°C or below
$14 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$14 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$93 Vol.
2%
26°C
$91 Vol.
5%
27°C
$643 Vol.
9%
28°C
$1,777 Vol.
32%
29°C
$935 Vol.
41%
30°C
$404 Vol.
14%
31°C
$202 Vol.
4%
32°C
$233 Vol.
1%
33°C or higher
$119 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon flow and associated cloud cover with scattered thunderstorms are capping daytime heating in Manila, keeping forecast highs clustered around 27–29 °C for 29 August. Official PAGASA guidance and multiple global models show widespread stratiform and convective clouds limiting solar insolation while strong southwesterly winds enhance mixing and evaporative cooling, suppressing the usual August climatological maximum near 31 °C. Recent 24-hour observations confirm maximum temperatures already trending 2–4 °C below seasonal norms under similar monsoon conditions. This meteorological setup underpins the market’s concentration of implied probability on the 28–29 °C outcomes, with only modest tail risk for 30 °C or higher if breaks in cloud cover develop late in the day.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 12:59 AM ET
Volume
$4,525End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:59 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon flow and associated cloud cover with scattered thunderstorms are capping daytime heating in Manila, keeping forecast highs clustered around 27–29 °C for 29 August. Official PAGASA guidance and multiple global models show widespread stratiform and convective clouds limiting solar insolation while strong southwesterly winds enhance mixing and evaporative cooling, suppressing the usual August climatological maximum near 31 °C. Recent 24-hour observations confirm maximum temperatures already trending 2–4 °C below seasonal norms under similar monsoon conditions. This meteorological setup underpins the market’s concentration of implied probability on the 28–29 °C outcomes, with only modest tail risk for 30 °C or higher if breaks in cloud cover develop late in the day.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,525End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:59 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent southwest monsoon flow and associated cloud cover with scattered thunderstorms are capping daytime heating in Manila, keeping forecast highs clustered around 27–29 °C for 29 August. Official PAGASA guidance and multiple global models show widespread stratiform and convective clouds limiting solar insolation while strong southwesterly winds enhance mixing and evaporative cooling, suppressing the usual August climatological maximum near 31 °C. Recent 24-hour observations confirm maximum temperatures already trending 2–4 °C below seasonal norms under similar monsoon conditions. This meteorological setup underpins the market’s concentration of implied probability on the 28–29 °C outcomes, with only modest tail risk for 30 °C or higher if breaks in cloud cover develop late in the day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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