Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models indicate a high around 30–31°C for Tokyo on August 28, with scattered showers, extensive cloud cover, and light southerly winds expected to limit peak heating. High humidity and reduced solar insolation under overcast conditions create uncertainty between these thresholds, as even modest shifts in timing or intensity of precipitation could alter the daily maximum by 1°C. Trader consensus reflects this narrow spread, with historical late-August averages near 30.3°C providing limited additional guidance amid variable steering patterns. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 28?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 28?
30°C 30%
31°C 28%
29°C 27%
32°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
26°C or below
1%
27°C
2%
28°C
4%
29°C
19%
30°C
30%
31°C
28%
32°C
12%
33°C
7%
34°C
3%
35°C
2%
36°C or higher
<1%
30°C 30%
31°C 28%
29°C 27%
32°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
26°C or below
$49 Vol.
1%
27°C
$26 Vol.
2%
28°C
$37 Vol.
4%
29°C
$26 Vol.
19%
30°C
$0 Vol.
30%
31°C
$47 Vol.
28%
32°C
$110 Vol.
12%
33°C
$8 Vol.
7%
34°C
$5 Vol.
3%
35°C
$26 Vol.
2%
36°C or higher
$482 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models indicate a high around 30–31°C for Tokyo on August 28, with scattered showers, extensive cloud cover, and light southerly winds expected to limit peak heating. High humidity and reduced solar insolation under overcast conditions create uncertainty between these thresholds, as even modest shifts in timing or intensity of precipitation could alter the daily maximum by 1°C. Trader consensus reflects this narrow spread, with historical late-August averages near 30.3°C providing limited additional guidance amid variable steering patterns. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine the outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$816End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models indicate a high around 30–31°C for Tokyo on August 28, with scattered showers, extensive cloud cover, and light southerly winds expected to limit peak heating. High humidity and reduced solar insolation under overcast conditions create uncertainty between these thresholds, as even modest shifts in timing or intensity of precipitation could alter the daily maximum by 1°C. Trader consensus reflects this narrow spread, with historical late-August averages near 30.3°C providing limited additional guidance amid variable steering patterns. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine the outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$816End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models indicate a high around 30–31°C for Tokyo on August 28, with scattered showers, extensive cloud cover, and light southerly winds expected to limit peak heating. High humidity and reduced solar insolation under overcast conditions create uncertainty between these thresholds, as even modest shifts in timing or intensity of precipitation could alter the daily maximum by 1°C. Trader consensus reflects this narrow spread, with historical late-August averages near 30.3°C providing limited additional guidance amid variable steering patterns. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions