Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate Tokyo will experience cloudy conditions with scattered showers on August 28, driven by a frontal boundary and lingering moist air. These factors limit nocturnal radiative cooling while promoting modest evaporative cooling, keeping overnight lows near 24–26 °C rather than the warmer values seen earlier in the week. Light variable winds and high humidity further reduce temperature swings, with ensemble guidance showing only minor spread around this range. Trader consensus on 25 °C and 26 °C as the most probable minima reflects this narrow forecast envelope, where small differences in cloud timing or localized rainfall could tip the daily minimum between those thresholds. Updated model runs and official briefings through August 27 will likely refine the outcome ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 28?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 28?
25°C 44%
26°C 36%
27°C 13%
24°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
22°C or below
5%
23°C
9%
24°C
12%
25°C
44%
26°C
36%
27°C
13%
28°C
8%
29°C
2%
30°C
1%
31°C
1%
32°C or higher
1%
25°C 44%
26°C 36%
27°C 13%
24°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
22°C or below
$48 Vol.
5%
23°C
$0 Vol.
9%
24°C
$26 Vol.
12%
25°C
$160 Vol.
44%
26°C
$0 Vol.
36%
27°C
$0 Vol.
13%
28°C
$0 Vol.
8%
29°C
$22 Vol.
2%
30°C
$37 Vol.
1%
31°C
$37 Vol.
1%
32°C or higher
$57 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate Tokyo will experience cloudy conditions with scattered showers on August 28, driven by a frontal boundary and lingering moist air. These factors limit nocturnal radiative cooling while promoting modest evaporative cooling, keeping overnight lows near 24–26 °C rather than the warmer values seen earlier in the week. Light variable winds and high humidity further reduce temperature swings, with ensemble guidance showing only minor spread around this range. Trader consensus on 25 °C and 26 °C as the most probable minima reflects this narrow forecast envelope, where small differences in cloud timing or localized rainfall could tip the daily minimum between those thresholds. Updated model runs and official briefings through August 27 will likely refine the outcome ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$387End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate Tokyo will experience cloudy conditions with scattered showers on August 28, driven by a frontal boundary and lingering moist air. These factors limit nocturnal radiative cooling while promoting modest evaporative cooling, keeping overnight lows near 24–26 °C rather than the warmer values seen earlier in the week. Light variable winds and high humidity further reduce temperature swings, with ensemble guidance showing only minor spread around this range. Trader consensus on 25 °C and 26 °C as the most probable minima reflects this narrow forecast envelope, where small differences in cloud timing or localized rainfall could tip the daily minimum between those thresholds. Updated model runs and official briefings through August 27 will likely refine the outcome ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$387End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate Tokyo will experience cloudy conditions with scattered showers on August 28, driven by a frontal boundary and lingering moist air. These factors limit nocturnal radiative cooling while promoting modest evaporative cooling, keeping overnight lows near 24–26 °C rather than the warmer values seen earlier in the week. Light variable winds and high humidity further reduce temperature swings, with ensemble guidance showing only minor spread around this range. Trader consensus on 25 °C and 26 °C as the most probable minima reflects this narrow forecast envelope, where small differences in cloud timing or localized rainfall could tip the daily minimum between those thresholds. Updated model runs and official briefings through August 27 will likely refine the outcome ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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