Recent short-term numerical weather prediction models from the Hong Kong Observatory and consensus guidance point to daytime maxima near 30–31°C on August 26 under a southwest monsoon regime with scattered showers and thunderstorms, keeping the market tightly balanced between these two outcomes. Persistent high humidity, cloud cover, and potential convective development limit strong insolation and surface heating compared to clearer subtropical summer patterns, while seasonal outlooks indicate normal-to-above-normal temperatures overall for late August amid a warming baseline. Traders monitor the next model runs and any tropical disturbance signals that could shift steering flow or rainfall timing, as even modest changes in cloud fraction or wind could tip the daily maximum by 1°C and alter implied probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on August 26?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 26?
31°C 35%
30°C 28%
32°C 20%
29°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
3%
29°C
13%
30°C
28%
31°C
35%
32°C
20%
33°C
5%
34°C or higher
2%
31°C 35%
30°C 28%
32°C 20%
29°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
24°C or below
$234 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$239 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$509 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$179 Vol.
1%
28°C
$183 Vol.
3%
29°C
$291 Vol.
13%
30°C
$52 Vol.
28%
31°C
$240 Vol.
35%
32°C
$134 Vol.
20%
33°C
$71 Vol.
5%
34°C or higher
$273 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent short-term numerical weather prediction models from the Hong Kong Observatory and consensus guidance point to daytime maxima near 30–31°C on August 26 under a southwest monsoon regime with scattered showers and thunderstorms, keeping the market tightly balanced between these two outcomes. Persistent high humidity, cloud cover, and potential convective development limit strong insolation and surface heating compared to clearer subtropical summer patterns, while seasonal outlooks indicate normal-to-above-normal temperatures overall for late August amid a warming baseline. Traders monitor the next model runs and any tropical disturbance signals that could shift steering flow or rainfall timing, as even modest changes in cloud fraction or wind could tip the daily maximum by 1°C and alter implied probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$2,400End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent short-term numerical weather prediction models from the Hong Kong Observatory and consensus guidance point to daytime maxima near 30–31°C on August 26 under a southwest monsoon regime with scattered showers and thunderstorms, keeping the market tightly balanced between these two outcomes. Persistent high humidity, cloud cover, and potential convective development limit strong insolation and surface heating compared to clearer subtropical summer patterns, while seasonal outlooks indicate normal-to-above-normal temperatures overall for late August amid a warming baseline. Traders monitor the next model runs and any tropical disturbance signals that could shift steering flow or rainfall timing, as even modest changes in cloud fraction or wind could tip the daily maximum by 1°C and alter implied probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$2,400End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-term numerical weather prediction models from the Hong Kong Observatory and consensus guidance point to daytime maxima near 30–31°C on August 26 under a southwest monsoon regime with scattered showers and thunderstorms, keeping the market tightly balanced between these two outcomes. Persistent high humidity, cloud cover, and potential convective development limit strong insolation and surface heating compared to clearer subtropical summer patterns, while seasonal outlooks indicate normal-to-above-normal temperatures overall for late August amid a warming baseline. Traders monitor the next model runs and any tropical disturbance signals that could shift steering flow or rainfall timing, as even modest changes in cloud fraction or wind could tip the daily maximum by 1°C and alter implied probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions