**Recent official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and multiple international models converge on a high of 31–33°C for Tokyo on August 24, 2026, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes of 32°C (37.5%) and 33°C (26.0%).** Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies with a chance of afternoon showers or isolated thunderstorms are expected under southerly flow, limiting strong daytime heating while maintaining typical late-August humidity levels near 70%. This setup follows several days of similar conditions, with no incoming heat wave or significant clearing that would push temperatures notably higher. Historical normals for the date hover around 30–31°C, and current model runs show only modest day-to-day variability without major disagreements. Traders appear to be weighting the JMA guidance and ensemble consensus heavily, resulting in tight pricing around the 31–33°C band and low probabilities for extremes (e.g., 35°C+ at just 3.5%). New model updates or any shift in cloud cover or wind patterns ahead of the 24th could still adjust these implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 24?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 24?
32°C 38%
33°C 27%
31°C 21%
34°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
1%
29°C
3%
30°C
6%
31°C
21%
32°C
38%
33°C
27%
34°C
7%
35°C or higher
4%
32°C 38%
33°C 27%
31°C 21%
34°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
25°C or below
$1,100 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$248 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$15 Vol.
1%
28°C
$0 Vol.
1%
29°C
$9 Vol.
3%
30°C
$97 Vol.
6%
31°C
$40 Vol.
21%
32°C
$53 Vol.
38%
33°C
$156 Vol.
27%
34°C
$376 Vol.
7%
35°C or higher
$98 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and multiple international models converge on a high of 31–33°C for Tokyo on August 24, 2026, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes of 32°C (37.5%) and 33°C (26.0%).**
Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies with a chance of afternoon showers or isolated thunderstorms are expected under southerly flow, limiting strong daytime heating while maintaining typical late-August humidity levels near 70%. This setup follows several days of similar conditions, with no incoming heat wave or significant clearing that would push temperatures notably higher. Historical normals for the date hover around 30–31°C, and current model runs show only modest day-to-day variability without major disagreements.
Traders appear to be weighting the JMA guidance and ensemble consensus heavily, resulting in tight pricing around the 31–33°C band and low probabilities for extremes (e.g., 35°C+ at just 3.5%). New model updates or any shift in cloud cover or wind patterns ahead of the 24th could still adjust these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$2,191End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and multiple international models converge on a high of 31–33°C for Tokyo on August 24, 2026, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes of 32°C (37.5%) and 33°C (26.0%).**
Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies with a chance of afternoon showers or isolated thunderstorms are expected under southerly flow, limiting strong daytime heating while maintaining typical late-August humidity levels near 70%. This setup follows several days of similar conditions, with no incoming heat wave or significant clearing that would push temperatures notably higher. Historical normals for the date hover around 30–31°C, and current model runs show only modest day-to-day variability without major disagreements.
Traders appear to be weighting the JMA guidance and ensemble consensus heavily, resulting in tight pricing around the 31–33°C band and low probabilities for extremes (e.g., 35°C+ at just 3.5%). New model updates or any shift in cloud cover or wind patterns ahead of the 24th could still adjust these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,191End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and multiple international models converge on a high of 31–33°C for Tokyo on August 24, 2026, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes of 32°C (37.5%) and 33°C (26.0%).** Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies with a chance of afternoon showers or isolated thunderstorms are expected under southerly flow, limiting strong daytime heating while maintaining typical late-August humidity levels near 70%. This setup follows several days of similar conditions, with no incoming heat wave or significant clearing that would push temperatures notably higher. Historical normals for the date hover around 30–31°C, and current model runs show only modest day-to-day variability without major disagreements. Traders appear to be weighting the JMA guidance and ensemble consensus heavily, resulting in tight pricing around the 31–33°C band and low probabilities for extremes (e.g., 35°C+ at just 3.5%). New model updates or any shift in cloud cover or wind patterns ahead of the 24th could still adjust these implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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