**Current forecasts from multiple models point to a typical mid-August overnight low of 9–12°C in Cape Town, with clear to partly cloudy skies and light winds favoring moderate radiative cooling.** This aligns with historical August averages (roughly 8–11°C minimum) under stable high-pressure conditions that limit cold-air advection. The near-even 49% market-implied odds on 7°C or below versus 17°C or higher reflect genuine short-range uncertainty: small shifts in cloud cover, wind speed, or local topography (e.g., cooler valleys versus warmer coastal zones) can easily move the daily minimum by several degrees. Model consensus remains tight for the 24th with no incoming cold fronts, but traders price the tails because ensemble spreads and microclimate effects routinely produce outliers around the central 10–12°C cluster shown in the specific-temperature lines. New official updates from the South African Weather Service over the next 48 hours will likely tighten these probabilities as the event window closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Cape Town on August 24?
Lowest temperature in Cape Town on August 24?
7°C or below 95%
17°C or higher 95%
15°C 36%
16°C 36%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
7°C or below
95%
8°C
19%
9°C
19%
10°C
19%
11°C
19%
12°C
19%
13°C
19%
14°C
2%
15°C
36%
16°C
36%
17°C or higher
95%
7°C or below 95%
17°C or higher 95%
15°C 36%
16°C 36%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
7°C or below
$5 Vol.
95%
8°C
$0 Vol.
19%
9°C
$0 Vol.
19%
10°C
$0 Vol.
19%
11°C
$0 Vol.
19%
12°C
$0 Vol.
19%
13°C
$0 Vol.
19%
14°C
$5 Vol.
2%
15°C
$5 Vol.
36%
16°C
$5 Vol.
36%
17°C or higher
$5 Vol.
95%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from multiple models point to a typical mid-August overnight low of 9–12°C in Cape Town, with clear to partly cloudy skies and light winds favoring moderate radiative cooling.**
This aligns with historical August averages (roughly 8–11°C minimum) under stable high-pressure conditions that limit cold-air advection. The near-even 49% market-implied odds on 7°C or below versus 17°C or higher reflect genuine short-range uncertainty: small shifts in cloud cover, wind speed, or local topography (e.g., cooler valleys versus warmer coastal zones) can easily move the daily minimum by several degrees.
Model consensus remains tight for the 24th with no incoming cold fronts, but traders price the tails because ensemble spreads and microclimate effects routinely produce outliers around the central 10–12°C cluster shown in the specific-temperature lines. New official updates from the South African Weather Service over the next 48 hours will likely tighten these probabilities as the event window closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 2:31 AM ET
Volume
$25End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 2:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from multiple models point to a typical mid-August overnight low of 9–12°C in Cape Town, with clear to partly cloudy skies and light winds favoring moderate radiative cooling.**
This aligns with historical August averages (roughly 8–11°C minimum) under stable high-pressure conditions that limit cold-air advection. The near-even 49% market-implied odds on 7°C or below versus 17°C or higher reflect genuine short-range uncertainty: small shifts in cloud cover, wind speed, or local topography (e.g., cooler valleys versus warmer coastal zones) can easily move the daily minimum by several degrees.
Model consensus remains tight for the 24th with no incoming cold fronts, but traders price the tails because ensemble spreads and microclimate effects routinely produce outliers around the central 10–12°C cluster shown in the specific-temperature lines. New official updates from the South African Weather Service over the next 48 hours will likely tighten these probabilities as the event window closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$25End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 2:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecasts from multiple models point to a typical mid-August overnight low of 9–12°C in Cape Town, with clear to partly cloudy skies and light winds favoring moderate radiative cooling.** This aligns with historical August averages (roughly 8–11°C minimum) under stable high-pressure conditions that limit cold-air advection. The near-even 49% market-implied odds on 7°C or below versus 17°C or higher reflect genuine short-range uncertainty: small shifts in cloud cover, wind speed, or local topography (e.g., cooler valleys versus warmer coastal zones) can easily move the daily minimum by several degrees. Model consensus remains tight for the 24th with no incoming cold fronts, but traders price the tails because ensemble spreads and microclimate effects routinely produce outliers around the central 10–12°C cluster shown in the specific-temperature lines. New official updates from the South African Weather Service over the next 48 hours will likely tighten these probabilities as the event window closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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