Current short-range guidance from European ensemble models and Météo-France places the expected minimum temperature in central Paris on August 24 near the late-summer climatological average of 14–15 °C, with overnight radiative cooling limited by increasing cloud cover and light southerly flow. Ensemble spreads and minor differences in boundary-layer moisture produce comparable probabilities across the 13–15 °C outcomes, reflecting typical forecast uncertainty two days ahead. Recent model runs show little signal for stronger nocturnal cooling that would favor 12 °C or below, while warmer solutions remain possible if clearing skies develop. Traders are therefore weighting the tightly bunched central outcomes most heavily, consistent with the narrow historical distribution of Paris minima at this time of year.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on August 24?
Lowest temperature in Paris on August 24?
14°C 39%
13°C 27%
15°C 20%
12°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
11°C or below
6%
12°C
9%
13°C
27%
14°C
39%
15°C
20%
16°C
9%
17°C
6%
18°C
4%
19°C
5%
20°C
5%
21°C or higher
3%
14°C 39%
13°C 27%
15°C 20%
12°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
11°C or below
$4 Vol.
6%
12°C
$0 Vol.
9%
13°C
$0 Vol.
27%
14°C
$0 Vol.
39%
15°C
$0 Vol.
20%
16°C
$0 Vol.
9%
17°C
$0 Vol.
6%
18°C
$0 Vol.
4%
19°C
$5 Vol.
5%
20°C
$5 Vol.
5%
21°C or higher
$5 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range guidance from European ensemble models and Météo-France places the expected minimum temperature in central Paris on August 24 near the late-summer climatological average of 14–15 °C, with overnight radiative cooling limited by increasing cloud cover and light southerly flow. Ensemble spreads and minor differences in boundary-layer moisture produce comparable probabilities across the 13–15 °C outcomes, reflecting typical forecast uncertainty two days ahead. Recent model runs show little signal for stronger nocturnal cooling that would favor 12 °C or below, while warmer solutions remain possible if clearing skies develop. Traders are therefore weighting the tightly bunched central outcomes most heavily, consistent with the narrow historical distribution of Paris minima at this time of year.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 2:29 AM ET
Volume
$19End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 2:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range guidance from European ensemble models and Météo-France places the expected minimum temperature in central Paris on August 24 near the late-summer climatological average of 14–15 °C, with overnight radiative cooling limited by increasing cloud cover and light southerly flow. Ensemble spreads and minor differences in boundary-layer moisture produce comparable probabilities across the 13–15 °C outcomes, reflecting typical forecast uncertainty two days ahead. Recent model runs show little signal for stronger nocturnal cooling that would favor 12 °C or below, while warmer solutions remain possible if clearing skies develop. Traders are therefore weighting the tightly bunched central outcomes most heavily, consistent with the narrow historical distribution of Paris minima at this time of year.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$19End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 2:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current short-range guidance from European ensemble models and Météo-France places the expected minimum temperature in central Paris on August 24 near the late-summer climatological average of 14–15 °C, with overnight radiative cooling limited by increasing cloud cover and light southerly flow. Ensemble spreads and minor differences in boundary-layer moisture produce comparable probabilities across the 13–15 °C outcomes, reflecting typical forecast uncertainty two days ahead. Recent model runs show little signal for stronger nocturnal cooling that would favor 12 °C or below, while warmer solutions remain possible if clearing skies develop. Traders are therefore weighting the tightly bunched central outcomes most heavily, consistent with the narrow historical distribution of Paris minima at this time of year.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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