Forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate a high near 31–32°C for Tokyo on August 22, supported by a strong Pacific High maintaining above-normal summer warmth across Honshu while increased cloud cover and scattered showers limit peak heating. Typical August humidity and urban heat-island effects in Tokyo amplify perceived temperatures, yet precipitation probability around 30% on that day introduces cooling that reduces the chance of 33°C or higher readings. Ensemble guidance shows modest day-to-day variability, with the 31°C outcome currently reflecting the narrow balance between persistent warm advection and potential convective activity that could trim maximums by 1–2°C. Updated JMA and regional model runs over the next 48 hours will likely refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 22?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 22?
31°C 35%
32°C 28%
30°C 16%
33°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 22, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
6%
29°C
6%
30°C
16%
31°C
35%
32°C
28%
33°C
11%
34°C
4%
35°C
3%
36°C or higher
1%
31°C 35%
32°C 28%
30°C 16%
33°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 22, 2026
26°C or below
$1,364 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$13 Vol.
1%
28°C
$30 Vol.
6%
29°C
$2 Vol.
6%
30°C
$32 Vol.
16%
31°C
$128 Vol.
35%
32°C
$26 Vol.
28%
33°C
$14 Vol.
11%
34°C
$20 Vol.
4%
35°C
$20 Vol.
3%
36°C or higher
$11 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate a high near 31–32°C for Tokyo on August 22, supported by a strong Pacific High maintaining above-normal summer warmth across Honshu while increased cloud cover and scattered showers limit peak heating. Typical August humidity and urban heat-island effects in Tokyo amplify perceived temperatures, yet precipitation probability around 30% on that day introduces cooling that reduces the chance of 33°C or higher readings. Ensemble guidance shows modest day-to-day variability, with the 31°C outcome currently reflecting the narrow balance between persistent warm advection and potential convective activity that could trim maximums by 1–2°C. Updated JMA and regional model runs over the next 48 hours will likely refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,660End Date
Aug 22, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate a high near 31–32°C for Tokyo on August 22, supported by a strong Pacific High maintaining above-normal summer warmth across Honshu while increased cloud cover and scattered showers limit peak heating. Typical August humidity and urban heat-island effects in Tokyo amplify perceived temperatures, yet precipitation probability around 30% on that day introduces cooling that reduces the chance of 33°C or higher readings. Ensemble guidance shows modest day-to-day variability, with the 31°C outcome currently reflecting the narrow balance between persistent warm advection and potential convective activity that could trim maximums by 1–2°C. Updated JMA and regional model runs over the next 48 hours will likely refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,660End Date
Aug 22, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate a high near 31–32°C for Tokyo on August 22, supported by a strong Pacific High maintaining above-normal summer warmth across Honshu while increased cloud cover and scattered showers limit peak heating. Typical August humidity and urban heat-island effects in Tokyo amplify perceived temperatures, yet precipitation probability around 30% on that day introduces cooling that reduces the chance of 33°C or higher readings. Ensemble guidance shows modest day-to-day variability, with the 31°C outcome currently reflecting the narrow balance between persistent warm advection and potential convective activity that could trim maximums by 1–2°C. Updated JMA and regional model runs over the next 48 hours will likely refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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