The southwest monsoon (Habagat) and associated cloud cover plus scattered showers remain the dominant factors capping Manila's peak temperatures near 30–32°C for August 22. Official PAGASA guidance and extended outlooks show daytime maxima of 32°C with 60–70% rain probability, consistent with climatological August averages of 30–31°C under humid, convective conditions. These patterns suppress insolation and promote evaporative cooling, reducing the likelihood of brief clear-sky spikes above 33°C. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 30–32°C, reflecting trader weighting of stable monsoon steering and minimal model spread in short-range forecasts; any unexpected break in cloudiness or delayed rainfall could shift probabilities toward the upper end of that range before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on August 22?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 22?
31°C 37%
32°C 22%
30°C 21%
33°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 22, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
2%
29°C
8%
30°C
21%
31°C
37%
32°C
22%
33°C
12%
34°C
2%
35°C or higher
1%
31°C 37%
32°C 22%
30°C 21%
33°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 22, 2026
25°C or below
$196 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$196 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$0 Vol.
1%
28°C
$80 Vol.
2%
29°C
$0 Vol.
8%
30°C
$36 Vol.
21%
31°C
$50 Vol.
37%
32°C
$47 Vol.
22%
33°C
$38 Vol.
12%
34°C
$35 Vol.
2%
35°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The southwest monsoon (Habagat) and associated cloud cover plus scattered showers remain the dominant factors capping Manila's peak temperatures near 30–32°C for August 22. Official PAGASA guidance and extended outlooks show daytime maxima of 32°C with 60–70% rain probability, consistent with climatological August averages of 30–31°C under humid, convective conditions. These patterns suppress insolation and promote evaporative cooling, reducing the likelihood of brief clear-sky spikes above 33°C. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 30–32°C, reflecting trader weighting of stable monsoon steering and minimal model spread in short-range forecasts; any unexpected break in cloudiness or delayed rainfall could shift probabilities toward the upper end of that range before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$678End Date
Aug 22, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The southwest monsoon (Habagat) and associated cloud cover plus scattered showers remain the dominant factors capping Manila's peak temperatures near 30–32°C for August 22. Official PAGASA guidance and extended outlooks show daytime maxima of 32°C with 60–70% rain probability, consistent with climatological August averages of 30–31°C under humid, convective conditions. These patterns suppress insolation and promote evaporative cooling, reducing the likelihood of brief clear-sky spikes above 33°C. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 30–32°C, reflecting trader weighting of stable monsoon steering and minimal model spread in short-range forecasts; any unexpected break in cloudiness or delayed rainfall could shift probabilities toward the upper end of that range before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$678End Date
Aug 22, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...The southwest monsoon (Habagat) and associated cloud cover plus scattered showers remain the dominant factors capping Manila's peak temperatures near 30–32°C for August 22. Official PAGASA guidance and extended outlooks show daytime maxima of 32°C with 60–70% rain probability, consistent with climatological August averages of 30–31°C under humid, convective conditions. These patterns suppress insolation and promote evaporative cooling, reducing the likelihood of brief clear-sky spikes above 33°C. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 30–32°C, reflecting trader weighting of stable monsoon steering and minimal model spread in short-range forecasts; any unexpected break in cloudiness or delayed rainfall could shift probabilities toward the upper end of that range before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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