Recent heavy rainfall and persistent cloud cover across the Sichuan Basin have kept Chengdu's daily highs near 26–28°C through August 18, limiting surface heating and favoring the market's clustered 29–31°C outcomes. Forecast models diverge modestly on August 20 convection timing and coverage, with the China Meteorological Administration projecting 32–35°C under partly sunny conditions while European and U.S. guidance emphasize scattered thundershowers that could cap peaks closer to 29–30°C. Key differentiating factors include boundary-layer moisture, afternoon convective initiation, and steering flow strength, all of which introduce small but resolution-critical uncertainty two days out. Trader sentiment therefore reflects the narrow range of plausible maximum temperatures given ongoing monsoon influences.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on August 20?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 20?
30°C 46%
29°C 22%
31°C 13%
28°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 20, 2026
24°C or below
1%
25°C
2%
26°C
2%
27°C
7%
28°C
10%
29°C
22%
30°C
46%
31°C
13%
32°C
8%
33°C
7%
34°C or higher
2%
30°C 46%
29°C 22%
31°C 13%
28°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 20, 2026
24°C or below
$236 Vol.
1%
25°C
$373 Vol.
2%
26°C
$65 Vol.
2%
27°C
$68 Vol.
7%
28°C
$64 Vol.
10%
29°C
$84 Vol.
22%
30°C
$1,077 Vol.
46%
31°C
$36 Vol.
13%
32°C
$31 Vol.
8%
33°C
$115 Vol.
7%
34°C or higher
$10 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent heavy rainfall and persistent cloud cover across the Sichuan Basin have kept Chengdu's daily highs near 26–28°C through August 18, limiting surface heating and favoring the market's clustered 29–31°C outcomes. Forecast models diverge modestly on August 20 convection timing and coverage, with the China Meteorological Administration projecting 32–35°C under partly sunny conditions while European and U.S. guidance emphasize scattered thundershowers that could cap peaks closer to 29–30°C. Key differentiating factors include boundary-layer moisture, afternoon convective initiation, and steering flow strength, all of which introduce small but resolution-critical uncertainty two days out. Trader sentiment therefore reflects the narrow range of plausible maximum temperatures given ongoing monsoon influences.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 18, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$895End Date
Aug 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent heavy rainfall and persistent cloud cover across the Sichuan Basin have kept Chengdu's daily highs near 26–28°C through August 18, limiting surface heating and favoring the market's clustered 29–31°C outcomes. Forecast models diverge modestly on August 20 convection timing and coverage, with the China Meteorological Administration projecting 32–35°C under partly sunny conditions while European and U.S. guidance emphasize scattered thundershowers that could cap peaks closer to 29–30°C. Key differentiating factors include boundary-layer moisture, afternoon convective initiation, and steering flow strength, all of which introduce small but resolution-critical uncertainty two days out. Trader sentiment therefore reflects the narrow range of plausible maximum temperatures given ongoing monsoon influences.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$895End Date
Aug 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent heavy rainfall and persistent cloud cover across the Sichuan Basin have kept Chengdu's daily highs near 26–28°C through August 18, limiting surface heating and favoring the market's clustered 29–31°C outcomes. Forecast models diverge modestly on August 20 convection timing and coverage, with the China Meteorological Administration projecting 32–35°C under partly sunny conditions while European and U.S. guidance emphasize scattered thundershowers that could cap peaks closer to 29–30°C. Key differentiating factors include boundary-layer moisture, afternoon convective initiation, and steering flow strength, all of which introduce small but resolution-critical uncertainty two days out. Trader sentiment therefore reflects the narrow range of plausible maximum temperatures given ongoing monsoon influences.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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