Recent short-range forecasts from Météo-France and European models indicate Paris maximum temperatures on August 18 will most likely peak near 27–28°C. Stable high pressure across northern France, combined with light winds and limited warm-air advection from the south, is suppressing further intensification after earlier August heatwave peaks above 37°C. These conditions align with late-summer climatology for the Paris basin, where daytime highs typically range 24–29°C absent strong synoptic forcing. Model consensus shows minimal spread around these values, with only modest uncertainty tied to cloud cover or localized effects that could shift the daily maximum by 1°C. Traders have therefore concentrated implied probability on the 27°C and 28°C bins, reflecting the narrow forecast envelope and proximity to resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Paris on August 18?
Highest temperature in Paris on August 18?
28°C 49%
27°C 34%
29°C 8%
26°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 18, 2026
25°C or below
2%
26°C
7%
27°C
34%
28°C
49%
29°C
8%
30°C
4%
31°C
1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
28°C 49%
27°C 34%
29°C 8%
26°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 18, 2026
25°C or below
$603 Vol.
2%
26°C
$906 Vol.
7%
27°C
$1,496 Vol.
34%
28°C
$2,100 Vol.
49%
29°C
$1,501 Vol.
8%
30°C
$858 Vol.
4%
31°C
$570 Vol.
1%
32°C
$301 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$330 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$452 Vol.
<1%
35°C or higher
$452 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts from Météo-France and European models indicate Paris maximum temperatures on August 18 will most likely peak near 27–28°C. Stable high pressure across northern France, combined with light winds and limited warm-air advection from the south, is suppressing further intensification after earlier August heatwave peaks above 37°C. These conditions align with late-summer climatology for the Paris basin, where daytime highs typically range 24–29°C absent strong synoptic forcing. Model consensus shows minimal spread around these values, with only modest uncertainty tied to cloud cover or localized effects that could shift the daily maximum by 1°C. Traders have therefore concentrated implied probability on the 27°C and 28°C bins, reflecting the narrow forecast envelope and proximity to resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 16, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
Volume
$9,460End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts from Météo-France and European models indicate Paris maximum temperatures on August 18 will most likely peak near 27–28°C. Stable high pressure across northern France, combined with light winds and limited warm-air advection from the south, is suppressing further intensification after earlier August heatwave peaks above 37°C. These conditions align with late-summer climatology for the Paris basin, where daytime highs typically range 24–29°C absent strong synoptic forcing. Model consensus shows minimal spread around these values, with only modest uncertainty tied to cloud cover or localized effects that could shift the daily maximum by 1°C. Traders have therefore concentrated implied probability on the 27°C and 28°C bins, reflecting the narrow forecast envelope and proximity to resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$9,460End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range forecasts from Météo-France and European models indicate Paris maximum temperatures on August 18 will most likely peak near 27–28°C. Stable high pressure across northern France, combined with light winds and limited warm-air advection from the south, is suppressing further intensification after earlier August heatwave peaks above 37°C. These conditions align with late-summer climatology for the Paris basin, where daytime highs typically range 24–29°C absent strong synoptic forcing. Model consensus shows minimal spread around these values, with only modest uncertainty tied to cloud cover or localized effects that could shift the daily maximum by 1°C. Traders have therefore concentrated implied probability on the 27°C and 28°C bins, reflecting the narrow forecast envelope and proximity to resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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