Updated short-range forecasts from major models position the minimum temperature in Paris on August 18 around 17–18°C as the leading outcomes, reflecting a cooldown following recent highs above 33°C. Increased cloud cover and lighter winds are expected to moderate overnight radiative cooling, keeping lows above seasonal baselines near 14–15°C while preventing sharper drops. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering in this range with limited spread, consistent with typical mid-August variability and the influence of a passing frontal system. Traders are weighting these data-driven projections heavily given the short lead time and high model consensus ahead of final verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on August 18?
Lowest temperature in Paris on August 18?
18°C 55%
17°C 24%
19°C 22%
16°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 18, 2026
15°C or below
6%
16°C
12%
17°C
24%
18°C
44%
19°C
22%
20°C
9%
21°C
5%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
18°C 55%
17°C 24%
19°C 22%
16°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 18, 2026
15°C or below
$0 Vol.
6%
16°C
$0 Vol.
12%
17°C
$0 Vol.
24%
18°C
$23 Vol.
44%
19°C
$0 Vol.
22%
20°C
$0 Vol.
9%
21°C
$20 Vol.
5%
22°C
$10 Vol.
1%
23°C
$10 Vol.
1%
24°C
$394 Vol.
<1%
25°C or higher
$394 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Updated short-range forecasts from major models position the minimum temperature in Paris on August 18 around 17–18°C as the leading outcomes, reflecting a cooldown following recent highs above 33°C. Increased cloud cover and lighter winds are expected to moderate overnight radiative cooling, keeping lows above seasonal baselines near 14–15°C while preventing sharper drops. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering in this range with limited spread, consistent with typical mid-August variability and the influence of a passing frontal system. Traders are weighting these data-driven projections heavily given the short lead time and high model consensus ahead of final verification.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 16, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$851End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Updated short-range forecasts from major models position the minimum temperature in Paris on August 18 around 17–18°C as the leading outcomes, reflecting a cooldown following recent highs above 33°C. Increased cloud cover and lighter winds are expected to moderate overnight radiative cooling, keeping lows above seasonal baselines near 14–15°C while preventing sharper drops. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering in this range with limited spread, consistent with typical mid-August variability and the influence of a passing frontal system. Traders are weighting these data-driven projections heavily given the short lead time and high model consensus ahead of final verification.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$851End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Updated short-range forecasts from major models position the minimum temperature in Paris on August 18 around 17–18°C as the leading outcomes, reflecting a cooldown following recent highs above 33°C. Increased cloud cover and lighter winds are expected to moderate overnight radiative cooling, keeping lows above seasonal baselines near 14–15°C while preventing sharper drops. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering in this range with limited spread, consistent with typical mid-August variability and the influence of a passing frontal system. Traders are weighting these data-driven projections heavily given the short lead time and high model consensus ahead of final verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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