Japan Meteorological Agency short-range guidance for August 16 points to a maximum near 31 °C under strengthening Pacific High influence that has already produced above-normal temperatures across Honshu this summer. Traders nevertheless assign the highest implied probability to 30 °C, with 29 °C close behind, reflecting uncertainty over afternoon cloud cover, scattered showers, and localized sea-breeze timing that can shave 1–2 °C from the peak. Historical mid-August climatology for Tokyo shows a 30–32 °C envelope, so small forecast adjustments in insolation or moisture advection readily shift the most likely daily high among the tightly bunched central outcomes. Updated model runs and JMA briefing on the 15th will provide the next clear signal for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 16?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 16?
30°C 40%
29°C 32%
31°C 12%
28°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
4%
28°C
10%
29°C
32%
30°C
40%
31°C
12%
32°C
5%
33°C
2%
34°C or higher
1%
30°C 40%
29°C 32%
31°C 12%
28°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
24°C or below
$248 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$157 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$82 Vol.
1%
27°C
$606 Vol.
4%
28°C
$288 Vol.
10%
29°C
$1,119 Vol.
32%
30°C
$2,140 Vol.
40%
31°C
$252 Vol.
12%
32°C
$221 Vol.
5%
33°C
$148 Vol.
2%
34°C or higher
$131 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Japan Meteorological Agency short-range guidance for August 16 points to a maximum near 31 °C under strengthening Pacific High influence that has already produced above-normal temperatures across Honshu this summer. Traders nevertheless assign the highest implied probability to 30 °C, with 29 °C close behind, reflecting uncertainty over afternoon cloud cover, scattered showers, and localized sea-breeze timing that can shave 1–2 °C from the peak. Historical mid-August climatology for Tokyo shows a 30–32 °C envelope, so small forecast adjustments in insolation or moisture advection readily shift the most likely daily high among the tightly bunched central outcomes. Updated model runs and JMA briefing on the 15th will provide the next clear signal for resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$5,392End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Japan Meteorological Agency short-range guidance for August 16 points to a maximum near 31 °C under strengthening Pacific High influence that has already produced above-normal temperatures across Honshu this summer. Traders nevertheless assign the highest implied probability to 30 °C, with 29 °C close behind, reflecting uncertainty over afternoon cloud cover, scattered showers, and localized sea-breeze timing that can shave 1–2 °C from the peak. Historical mid-August climatology for Tokyo shows a 30–32 °C envelope, so small forecast adjustments in insolation or moisture advection readily shift the most likely daily high among the tightly bunched central outcomes. Updated model runs and JMA briefing on the 15th will provide the next clear signal for resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,392End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Japan Meteorological Agency short-range guidance for August 16 points to a maximum near 31 °C under strengthening Pacific High influence that has already produced above-normal temperatures across Honshu this summer. Traders nevertheless assign the highest implied probability to 30 °C, with 29 °C close behind, reflecting uncertainty over afternoon cloud cover, scattered showers, and localized sea-breeze timing that can shave 1–2 °C from the peak. Historical mid-August climatology for Tokyo shows a 30–32 °C envelope, so small forecast adjustments in insolation or moisture advection readily shift the most likely daily high among the tightly bunched central outcomes. Updated model runs and JMA briefing on the 15th will provide the next clear signal for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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