Official JMA forecasts for Tokyo on August 16 point to an overnight low near 23°C amid cloudy conditions with scattered showers, aligning with the market's heavy weighting toward 23–24°C outcomes. Mid-August climatology shows typical minimums of 23–24°C under the influence of the Pacific high, which limits nocturnal cooling while high humidity sustains warmth. Ensemble models show limited spread, with no typhoon or cold-air intrusion expected to push readings below 22°C. Recent above-normal seasonal temperatures further support trader consensus around these values, though updated model runs tonight could shift odds if clearer skies allow greater radiative cooling.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 16?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 16?
23°C 34%
22°C 5.3%
21°C 2.7%
20°C <1%
$12,945 Vol.
$12,945 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
3%
22°C
5%
23°C
34%
24°C
61%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
23°C 34%
22°C 5.3%
21°C 2.7%
20°C <1%
$12,945 Vol.
$12,945 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
18°C or below
$274 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$224 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$1,340 Vol.
1%
21°C
$1,000 Vol.
3%
22°C
$1,963 Vol.
5%
23°C
$3,528 Vol.
34%
24°C
$3,200 Vol.
61%
25°C
$703 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$249 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$219 Vol.
<1%
28°C or higher
$246 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official JMA forecasts for Tokyo on August 16 point to an overnight low near 23°C amid cloudy conditions with scattered showers, aligning with the market's heavy weighting toward 23–24°C outcomes. Mid-August climatology shows typical minimums of 23–24°C under the influence of the Pacific high, which limits nocturnal cooling while high humidity sustains warmth. Ensemble models show limited spread, with no typhoon or cold-air intrusion expected to push readings below 22°C. Recent above-normal seasonal temperatures further support trader consensus around these values, though updated model runs tonight could shift odds if clearer skies allow greater radiative cooling.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$12,945End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official JMA forecasts for Tokyo on August 16 point to an overnight low near 23°C amid cloudy conditions with scattered showers, aligning with the market's heavy weighting toward 23–24°C outcomes. Mid-August climatology shows typical minimums of 23–24°C under the influence of the Pacific high, which limits nocturnal cooling while high humidity sustains warmth. Ensemble models show limited spread, with no typhoon or cold-air intrusion expected to push readings below 22°C. Recent above-normal seasonal temperatures further support trader consensus around these values, though updated model runs tonight could shift odds if clearer skies allow greater radiative cooling.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$12,945End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official JMA forecasts for Tokyo on August 16 point to an overnight low near 23°C amid cloudy conditions with scattered showers, aligning with the market's heavy weighting toward 23–24°C outcomes. Mid-August climatology shows typical minimums of 23–24°C under the influence of the Pacific high, which limits nocturnal cooling while high humidity sustains warmth. Ensemble models show limited spread, with no typhoon or cold-air intrusion expected to push readings below 22°C. Recent above-normal seasonal temperatures further support trader consensus around these values, though updated model runs tonight could shift odds if clearer skies allow greater radiative cooling.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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