Forecast models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute currently indicate a daily maximum near 21°C in Amsterdam on August 17 under cloudy skies, modest daytime heating, and light winds that limit additional warming. This consensus aligns with the 58% market-implied probability for 21°C as the peak, while the combined 38% odds on 20°C or 22°C reflect remaining uncertainty from minor variations in cloud cover or advection before the official 0–6 UTC measurement window at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol. August climatology supports this range, with historical averages near 21°C and low likelihood of extremes given the stable high-pressure influence. Updated high-resolution runs and any last-minute observational shifts could refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on August 17?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 17?
21°C 57%
22°C 20%
20°C 18%
23°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 17, 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
2%
19°C
4%
20°C
18%
21°C
57%
22°C
20%
23°C
4%
24°C
2%
25°C
1%
26°C or higher
<1%
21°C 57%
22°C 20%
20°C 18%
23°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 17, 2026
16°C or below
$507 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$609 Vol.
1%
18°C
$179 Vol.
2%
19°C
$498 Vol.
4%
20°C
$568 Vol.
18%
21°C
$2,210 Vol.
57%
22°C
$1,210 Vol.
20%
23°C
$789 Vol.
4%
24°C
$343 Vol.
2%
25°C
$345 Vol.
1%
26°C or higher
$413 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute currently indicate a daily maximum near 21°C in Amsterdam on August 17 under cloudy skies, modest daytime heating, and light winds that limit additional warming. This consensus aligns with the 58% market-implied probability for 21°C as the peak, while the combined 38% odds on 20°C or 22°C reflect remaining uncertainty from minor variations in cloud cover or advection before the official 0–6 UTC measurement window at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol. August climatology supports this range, with historical averages near 21°C and low likelihood of extremes given the stable high-pressure influence. Updated high-resolution runs and any last-minute observational shifts could refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 15, 2026, 4:07 PM ET
Volume
$7,672End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute currently indicate a daily maximum near 21°C in Amsterdam on August 17 under cloudy skies, modest daytime heating, and light winds that limit additional warming. This consensus aligns with the 58% market-implied probability for 21°C as the peak, while the combined 38% odds on 20°C or 22°C reflect remaining uncertainty from minor variations in cloud cover or advection before the official 0–6 UTC measurement window at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol. August climatology supports this range, with historical averages near 21°C and low likelihood of extremes given the stable high-pressure influence. Updated high-resolution runs and any last-minute observational shifts could refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$7,672End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute currently indicate a daily maximum near 21°C in Amsterdam on August 17 under cloudy skies, modest daytime heating, and light winds that limit additional warming. This consensus aligns with the 58% market-implied probability for 21°C as the peak, while the combined 38% odds on 20°C or 22°C reflect remaining uncertainty from minor variations in cloud cover or advection before the official 0–6 UTC measurement window at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol. August climatology supports this range, with historical averages near 21°C and low likelihood of extremes given the stable high-pressure influence. Updated high-resolution runs and any last-minute observational shifts could refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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