Trader consensus centers on the 82–87°F range because mid-August climatology for Central Park shows a normal high near 83–84°F, with current National Weather Service and model guidance pointing to near-normal conditions under weak steering flow and limited heat advection. Recent monthly outlooks from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center indicate a leaning toward above-average temperatures for August overall, supporting the elevated weighting toward 84–85°F, while private forecasts consistently cluster in the low-to-mid 80s without signals for strong ridging or tropical moisture that could push readings higher. Light winds and typical urban heat-island effects further anchor probabilities in this narrow band ahead of the final NWS forecast updates on August 16–17.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on August 17?
Highest temperature in NYC on August 17?
84-85°F 39%
82-83°F 22%
86-87°F 22%
80-81°F 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 17, 2026
75°F or below
<1%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
3%
80-81°F
8%
82-83°F
22%
84-85°F
39%
86-87°F
22%
88-89°F
8%
90-91°F
2%
92-93°F
<1%
94°F or higher
<1%
84-85°F 39%
82-83°F 22%
86-87°F 22%
80-81°F 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 17, 2026
75°F or below
$436 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$300 Vol.
1%
78-79°F
$288 Vol.
3%
80-81°F
$248 Vol.
8%
82-83°F
$337 Vol.
22%
84-85°F
$1,759 Vol.
39%
86-87°F
$353 Vol.
22%
88-89°F
$301 Vol.
8%
90-91°F
$40 Vol.
2%
92-93°F
$252 Vol.
<1%
94°F or higher
$308 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus centers on the 82–87°F range because mid-August climatology for Central Park shows a normal high near 83–84°F, with current National Weather Service and model guidance pointing to near-normal conditions under weak steering flow and limited heat advection. Recent monthly outlooks from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center indicate a leaning toward above-average temperatures for August overall, supporting the elevated weighting toward 84–85°F, while private forecasts consistently cluster in the low-to-mid 80s without signals for strong ridging or tropical moisture that could push readings higher. Light winds and typical urban heat-island effects further anchor probabilities in this narrow band ahead of the final NWS forecast updates on August 16–17.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 15, 2026, 9:56 PM ET
Volume
$4,059End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 9:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus centers on the 82–87°F range because mid-August climatology for Central Park shows a normal high near 83–84°F, with current National Weather Service and model guidance pointing to near-normal conditions under weak steering flow and limited heat advection. Recent monthly outlooks from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center indicate a leaning toward above-average temperatures for August overall, supporting the elevated weighting toward 84–85°F, while private forecasts consistently cluster in the low-to-mid 80s without signals for strong ridging or tropical moisture that could push readings higher. Light winds and typical urban heat-island effects further anchor probabilities in this narrow band ahead of the final NWS forecast updates on August 16–17.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,059End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 9:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus centers on the 82–87°F range because mid-August climatology for Central Park shows a normal high near 83–84°F, with current National Weather Service and model guidance pointing to near-normal conditions under weak steering flow and limited heat advection. Recent monthly outlooks from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center indicate a leaning toward above-average temperatures for August overall, supporting the elevated weighting toward 84–85°F, while private forecasts consistently cluster in the low-to-mid 80s without signals for strong ridging or tropical moisture that could push readings higher. Light winds and typical urban heat-island effects further anchor probabilities in this narrow band ahead of the final NWS forecast updates on August 16–17.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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