Recent forecasts from multiple models, including those referenced by timeanddate.com, the UK Met Office, and Chinese meteorological sources, indicate a daytime maximum around 31–32°C for Shanghai on August 17, driven by typical late-summer conditions with high humidity, light northerly winds, and scattered thundershowers or overcast skies that limit peak solar heating. These conditions align closely with the market’s leading probabilities for 31°C (44.5%) and 30°C (28.0%), as cloud cover and precipitation reduce the chance of stronger warming. Recent model runs show limited disagreement on steering patterns or intensification of any nearby systems, keeping 32°C (16.5%) as a plausible but less favored outcome while lower or higher brackets remain low-probability due to historical August baselines near 32°C and the moderating effects of expected moisture. Updated guidance from official monitoring agencies over the next 24 hours will be the primary near-term driver of any shifts in trader consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on August 17?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 17?
31°C 45%
30°C 28%
32°C 17%
29°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 17, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
3%
29°C
6%
30°C
28%
31°C
45%
32°C
17%
33°C
3%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
31°C 45%
30°C 28%
32°C 17%
29°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 17, 2026
25°C or below
$159 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$159 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$51 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$1,035 Vol.
3%
29°C
$1,848 Vol.
6%
30°C
$627 Vol.
28%
31°C
$1,236 Vol.
45%
32°C
$1,531 Vol.
17%
33°C
$505 Vol.
3%
34°C
$1,465 Vol.
<1%
35°C or higher
$640 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models, including those referenced by timeanddate.com, the UK Met Office, and Chinese meteorological sources, indicate a daytime maximum around 31–32°C for Shanghai on August 17, driven by typical late-summer conditions with high humidity, light northerly winds, and scattered thundershowers or overcast skies that limit peak solar heating. These conditions align closely with the market’s leading probabilities for 31°C (44.5%) and 30°C (28.0%), as cloud cover and precipitation reduce the chance of stronger warming. Recent model runs show limited disagreement on steering patterns or intensification of any nearby systems, keeping 32°C (16.5%) as a plausible but less favored outcome while lower or higher brackets remain low-probability due to historical August baselines near 32°C and the moderating effects of expected moisture. Updated guidance from official monitoring agencies over the next 24 hours will be the primary near-term driver of any shifts in trader consensus.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 15, 2026, 4:05 PM ET
Volume
$9,025End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:05 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models, including those referenced by timeanddate.com, the UK Met Office, and Chinese meteorological sources, indicate a daytime maximum around 31–32°C for Shanghai on August 17, driven by typical late-summer conditions with high humidity, light northerly winds, and scattered thundershowers or overcast skies that limit peak solar heating. These conditions align closely with the market’s leading probabilities for 31°C (44.5%) and 30°C (28.0%), as cloud cover and precipitation reduce the chance of stronger warming. Recent model runs show limited disagreement on steering patterns or intensification of any nearby systems, keeping 32°C (16.5%) as a plausible but less favored outcome while lower or higher brackets remain low-probability due to historical August baselines near 32°C and the moderating effects of expected moisture. Updated guidance from official monitoring agencies over the next 24 hours will be the primary near-term driver of any shifts in trader consensus.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$9,025End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:05 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models, including those referenced by timeanddate.com, the UK Met Office, and Chinese meteorological sources, indicate a daytime maximum around 31–32°C for Shanghai on August 17, driven by typical late-summer conditions with high humidity, light northerly winds, and scattered thundershowers or overcast skies that limit peak solar heating. These conditions align closely with the market’s leading probabilities for 31°C (44.5%) and 30°C (28.0%), as cloud cover and precipitation reduce the chance of stronger warming. Recent model runs show limited disagreement on steering patterns or intensification of any nearby systems, keeping 32°C (16.5%) as a plausible but less favored outcome while lower or higher brackets remain low-probability due to historical August baselines near 32°C and the moderating effects of expected moisture. Updated guidance from official monitoring agencies over the next 24 hours will be the primary near-term driver of any shifts in trader consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions