Official forecasts from Météo-France and supporting model consensus, including recent ECMWF and GFS runs, indicate a maximum temperature of 28–29°C in Paris on August 17 under veiling cloud cover and light southerly winds. A persistent upper-level ridge has sustained elevated temperatures across much of western Europe amid the ongoing mid-August heat dome, yet increasing Atlantic moisture and partial cloudiness are limiting further intensification over northern France. Historical August climatology places typical highs near 24–26°C, making the current setup notably warmer but moderated relative to southern regions exceeding 35–40°C. Market-implied odds align closely with this guidance, concentrating probability on 28–29°C while assigning lower weight to 30°C or higher outcomes that would require clearer skies or stronger subsidence. Final resolution depends on the official observed maximum reported by Météo-France tomorrow.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Paris on August 17?
Highest temperature in Paris on August 17?
29°C 56%
28°C 28%
30°C 13%
27°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 17, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
5%
28°C
28%
29°C
56%
30°C
13%
31°C
3%
32°C
1%
33°C
1%
34°C or higher
<1%
29°C 56%
28°C 28%
30°C 13%
27°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 17, 2026
24°C or below
$143 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$133 Vol.
1%
26°C
$133 Vol.
1%
27°C
$489 Vol.
5%
28°C
$399 Vol.
28%
29°C
$1,714 Vol.
56%
30°C
$269 Vol.
13%
31°C
$309 Vol.
3%
32°C
$481 Vol.
1%
33°C
$222 Vol.
1%
34°C or higher
$320 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from Météo-France and supporting model consensus, including recent ECMWF and GFS runs, indicate a maximum temperature of 28–29°C in Paris on August 17 under veiling cloud cover and light southerly winds. A persistent upper-level ridge has sustained elevated temperatures across much of western Europe amid the ongoing mid-August heat dome, yet increasing Atlantic moisture and partial cloudiness are limiting further intensification over northern France. Historical August climatology places typical highs near 24–26°C, making the current setup notably warmer but moderated relative to southern regions exceeding 35–40°C. Market-implied odds align closely with this guidance, concentrating probability on 28–29°C while assigning lower weight to 30°C or higher outcomes that would require clearer skies or stronger subsidence. Final resolution depends on the official observed maximum reported by Météo-France tomorrow.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 15, 2026, 4:04 PM ET
Volume
$4,611End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from Météo-France and supporting model consensus, including recent ECMWF and GFS runs, indicate a maximum temperature of 28–29°C in Paris on August 17 under veiling cloud cover and light southerly winds. A persistent upper-level ridge has sustained elevated temperatures across much of western Europe amid the ongoing mid-August heat dome, yet increasing Atlantic moisture and partial cloudiness are limiting further intensification over northern France. Historical August climatology places typical highs near 24–26°C, making the current setup notably warmer but moderated relative to southern regions exceeding 35–40°C. Market-implied odds align closely with this guidance, concentrating probability on 28–29°C while assigning lower weight to 30°C or higher outcomes that would require clearer skies or stronger subsidence. Final resolution depends on the official observed maximum reported by Météo-France tomorrow.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,611End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official forecasts from Météo-France and supporting model consensus, including recent ECMWF and GFS runs, indicate a maximum temperature of 28–29°C in Paris on August 17 under veiling cloud cover and light southerly winds. A persistent upper-level ridge has sustained elevated temperatures across much of western Europe amid the ongoing mid-August heat dome, yet increasing Atlantic moisture and partial cloudiness are limiting further intensification over northern France. Historical August climatology places typical highs near 24–26°C, making the current setup notably warmer but moderated relative to southern regions exceeding 35–40°C. Market-implied odds align closely with this guidance, concentrating probability on 28–29°C while assigning lower weight to 30°C or higher outcomes that would require clearer skies or stronger subsidence. Final resolution depends on the official observed maximum reported by Météo-France tomorrow.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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