Recent forecasts from agencies including the Met Office and AccuWeather point to a maximum of 21–22 °C in Amsterdam on August 20, consistent with the typical late-August decline in daily highs (climatological average near 21 °C). Persistent westerly flow and cloud cover have kept temperatures near or slightly below seasonal norms over the past week, limiting warming potential ahead of the target date. Model consensus favors a peak near 21 °C, with modest uncertainty from possible timing of showers that could suppress the daily maximum by 1 °C or allow brief clearing to push it 1 °C higher. These conditions underpin the strong market weighting on 20–22 °C outcomes, while probabilities for 23 °C or above remain low absent an unexpected shift in steering patterns or reduced cloudiness. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will refine the exact peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on August 20?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 20?
21°C 42%
20°C 26%
22°C 22%
23°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 20, 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
2%
18°C
4%
19°C
8%
20°C
26%
21°C
42%
22°C
22%
23°C
10%
24°C
4%
25°C or higher
1%
21°C 42%
20°C 26%
22°C 22%
23°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 20, 2026
15°C or below
$5 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$5 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$146 Vol.
2%
18°C
$110 Vol.
4%
19°C
$25 Vol.
8%
20°C
$46 Vol.
26%
21°C
$128 Vol.
42%
22°C
$17 Vol.
22%
23°C
$28 Vol.
10%
24°C
$10 Vol.
4%
25°C or higher
$5 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from agencies including the Met Office and AccuWeather point to a maximum of 21–22 °C in Amsterdam on August 20, consistent with the typical late-August decline in daily highs (climatological average near 21 °C). Persistent westerly flow and cloud cover have kept temperatures near or slightly below seasonal norms over the past week, limiting warming potential ahead of the target date. Model consensus favors a peak near 21 °C, with modest uncertainty from possible timing of showers that could suppress the daily maximum by 1 °C or allow brief clearing to push it 1 °C higher. These conditions underpin the strong market weighting on 20–22 °C outcomes, while probabilities for 23 °C or above remain low absent an unexpected shift in steering patterns or reduced cloudiness. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will refine the exact peak.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 18, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$525End Date
Aug 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from agencies including the Met Office and AccuWeather point to a maximum of 21–22 °C in Amsterdam on August 20, consistent with the typical late-August decline in daily highs (climatological average near 21 °C). Persistent westerly flow and cloud cover have kept temperatures near or slightly below seasonal norms over the past week, limiting warming potential ahead of the target date. Model consensus favors a peak near 21 °C, with modest uncertainty from possible timing of showers that could suppress the daily maximum by 1 °C or allow brief clearing to push it 1 °C higher. These conditions underpin the strong market weighting on 20–22 °C outcomes, while probabilities for 23 °C or above remain low absent an unexpected shift in steering patterns or reduced cloudiness. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will refine the exact peak.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$525End Date
Aug 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from agencies including the Met Office and AccuWeather point to a maximum of 21–22 °C in Amsterdam on August 20, consistent with the typical late-August decline in daily highs (climatological average near 21 °C). Persistent westerly flow and cloud cover have kept temperatures near or slightly below seasonal norms over the past week, limiting warming potential ahead of the target date. Model consensus favors a peak near 21 °C, with modest uncertainty from possible timing of showers that could suppress the daily maximum by 1 °C or allow brief clearing to push it 1 °C higher. These conditions underpin the strong market weighting on 20–22 °C outcomes, while probabilities for 23 °C or above remain low absent an unexpected shift in steering patterns or reduced cloudiness. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will refine the exact peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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