Recent ensemble guidance and climatological baselines for mid-August place Amsterdam’s expected daily maximum near 21–22 °C, with the market’s near-even split between those two outcomes reflecting modest spread among global and regional models. North Sea moderation, typical westerly flow, and variable cloud cover are the dominant controls on whether peak readings reach the lower or upper end of that narrow range. No strong warm or cool anomaly signals have emerged in the past week, keeping probabilities clustered tightly around historical averages while underscoring the inherent uncertainty in 48-hour temperature forecasts. Updated model runs and official KNMI guidance ahead of the 19th remain the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on August 19?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 19?
21°C 34%
22°C 30%
20°C 15%
23°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 19, 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
7%
19°C
10%
20°C
15%
21°C
34%
22°C
30%
23°C
13%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C or higher
<1%
21°C 34%
22°C 30%
20°C 15%
23°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 19, 2026
16°C or below
$5 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$5 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$30 Vol.
7%
19°C
$20 Vol.
10%
20°C
$0 Vol.
15%
21°C
$89 Vol.
34%
22°C
$0 Vol.
30%
23°C
$4 Vol.
13%
24°C
$25 Vol.
1%
25°C
$10 Vol.
1%
26°C or higher
$5 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble guidance and climatological baselines for mid-August place Amsterdam’s expected daily maximum near 21–22 °C, with the market’s near-even split between those two outcomes reflecting modest spread among global and regional models. North Sea moderation, typical westerly flow, and variable cloud cover are the dominant controls on whether peak readings reach the lower or upper end of that narrow range. No strong warm or cool anomaly signals have emerged in the past week, keeping probabilities clustered tightly around historical averages while underscoring the inherent uncertainty in 48-hour temperature forecasts. Updated model runs and official KNMI guidance ahead of the 19th remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$123End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble guidance and climatological baselines for mid-August place Amsterdam’s expected daily maximum near 21–22 °C, with the market’s near-even split between those two outcomes reflecting modest spread among global and regional models. North Sea moderation, typical westerly flow, and variable cloud cover are the dominant controls on whether peak readings reach the lower or upper end of that narrow range. No strong warm or cool anomaly signals have emerged in the past week, keeping probabilities clustered tightly around historical averages while underscoring the inherent uncertainty in 48-hour temperature forecasts. Updated model runs and official KNMI guidance ahead of the 19th remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$123End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble guidance and climatological baselines for mid-August place Amsterdam’s expected daily maximum near 21–22 °C, with the market’s near-even split between those two outcomes reflecting modest spread among global and regional models. North Sea moderation, typical westerly flow, and variable cloud cover are the dominant controls on whether peak readings reach the lower or upper end of that narrow range. No strong warm or cool anomaly signals have emerged in the past week, keeping probabilities clustered tightly around historical averages while underscoring the inherent uncertainty in 48-hour temperature forecasts. Updated model runs and official KNMI guidance ahead of the 19th remain the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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