**Ongoing southwest monsoon conditions are the dominant factor anchoring trader expectations around 31–33°C for Karachi’s August 19 maximum.** Persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and a steady sea breeze from the Arabian Sea limit daytime heating by reducing incoming solar radiation while enhancing evaporative cooling. Recent Pakistan Meteorological Department observations show maxima near 32°C under mostly cloudy skies with 30–40 km/h onshore winds, consistent with climatological August averages of 31–32°C. Earlier 2026 heatwave peaks above 44°C have been suppressed since monsoon onset, and model guidance indicates continued moisture and instability through mid-to-late August. These dynamics explain the heavy concentration of market-implied probability on 32°C (46.5%), with 33°C and 31°C as secondary outcomes, while probabilities for extremes above 35°C or below 30°C remain minimal absent a sudden monsoon break.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Karachi on August 19?
Highest temperature in Karachi on August 19?
32°C 47%
33°C 27%
31°C 18%
35°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 19, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
1%
30°C
5%
31°C
18%
32°C
47%
33°C
27%
34°C
6%
35°C
7%
36°C
7%
37°C or higher
<1%
32°C 47%
33°C 27%
31°C 18%
35°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 19, 2026
27°C or below
$5 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$5 Vol.
1%
29°C
$122 Vol.
1%
30°C
$32 Vol.
5%
31°C
$8 Vol.
18%
32°C
$85 Vol.
47%
33°C
$0 Vol.
27%
34°C
$0 Vol.
6%
35°C
$5 Vol.
7%
36°C
$5 Vol.
7%
37°C or higher
$5 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Masroor Airbase Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Ongoing southwest monsoon conditions are the dominant factor anchoring trader expectations around 31–33°C for Karachi’s August 19 maximum.** Persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and a steady sea breeze from the Arabian Sea limit daytime heating by reducing incoming solar radiation while enhancing evaporative cooling. Recent Pakistan Meteorological Department observations show maxima near 32°C under mostly cloudy skies with 30–40 km/h onshore winds, consistent with climatological August averages of 31–32°C. Earlier 2026 heatwave peaks above 44°C have been suppressed since monsoon onset, and model guidance indicates continued moisture and instability through mid-to-late August. These dynamics explain the heavy concentration of market-implied probability on 32°C (46.5%), with 33°C and 31°C as secondary outcomes, while probabilities for extremes above 35°C or below 30°C remain minimal absent a sudden monsoon break.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Masroor Airbase Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Masroor Airbase Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$271End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Masroor Airbase Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Ongoing southwest monsoon conditions are the dominant factor anchoring trader expectations around 31–33°C for Karachi’s August 19 maximum.** Persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and a steady sea breeze from the Arabian Sea limit daytime heating by reducing incoming solar radiation while enhancing evaporative cooling. Recent Pakistan Meteorological Department observations show maxima near 32°C under mostly cloudy skies with 30–40 km/h onshore winds, consistent with climatological August averages of 31–32°C. Earlier 2026 heatwave peaks above 44°C have been suppressed since monsoon onset, and model guidance indicates continued moisture and instability through mid-to-late August. These dynamics explain the heavy concentration of market-implied probability on 32°C (46.5%), with 33°C and 31°C as secondary outcomes, while probabilities for extremes above 35°C or below 30°C remain minimal absent a sudden monsoon break.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Masroor Airbase Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Masroor Airbase Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$271End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKCResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Ongoing southwest monsoon conditions are the dominant factor anchoring trader expectations around 31–33°C for Karachi’s August 19 maximum.** Persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and a steady sea breeze from the Arabian Sea limit daytime heating by reducing incoming solar radiation while enhancing evaporative cooling. Recent Pakistan Meteorological Department observations show maxima near 32°C under mostly cloudy skies with 30–40 km/h onshore winds, consistent with climatological August averages of 31–32°C. Earlier 2026 heatwave peaks above 44°C have been suppressed since monsoon onset, and model guidance indicates continued moisture and instability through mid-to-late August. These dynamics explain the heavy concentration of market-implied probability on 32°C (46.5%), with 33°C and 31°C as secondary outcomes, while probabilities for extremes above 35°C or below 30°C remain minimal absent a sudden monsoon break.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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