Persistent southwest monsoon activity across Luzon continues to drive cloud cover and scattered showers into mid-August 2026, moderating daytime maxima in Metro Manila below typical seasonal peaks near 31°C. Official PAGASA guidance for August 19 projects a 24–31°C range with a 60% rain probability, while recent model consensus and observed trends favor peaks clustered around 27–29°C as convective activity limits solar heating. These conditions create genuine uncertainty around exact maxima, with outcomes near 28°C carrying the highest market-implied probability because monsoon-enhanced humidity and precipitation timing can shave several degrees from otherwise warmer baselines. Updated PAGASA outlooks and short-range model runs over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on August 19?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 19?
28°C 31%
29°C 28%
30°C 26%
27°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Aug 19, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
4%
26°C
8%
27°C
16%
28°C
31%
29°C
28%
30°C
26%
31°C
5%
32°C or higher
2%
28°C 31%
29°C 28%
30°C 26%
27°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Aug 19, 2026
22°C or below
$10 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$10 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$5 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$0 Vol.
4%
26°C
$7 Vol.
8%
27°C
$0 Vol.
16%
28°C
$18 Vol.
31%
29°C
$0 Vol.
28%
30°C
$0 Vol.
26%
31°C
$26 Vol.
5%
32°C or higher
$5 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon activity across Luzon continues to drive cloud cover and scattered showers into mid-August 2026, moderating daytime maxima in Metro Manila below typical seasonal peaks near 31°C. Official PAGASA guidance for August 19 projects a 24–31°C range with a 60% rain probability, while recent model consensus and observed trends favor peaks clustered around 27–29°C as convective activity limits solar heating. These conditions create genuine uncertainty around exact maxima, with outcomes near 28°C carrying the highest market-implied probability because monsoon-enhanced humidity and precipitation timing can shave several degrees from otherwise warmer baselines. Updated PAGASA outlooks and short-range model runs over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$81End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon activity across Luzon continues to drive cloud cover and scattered showers into mid-August 2026, moderating daytime maxima in Metro Manila below typical seasonal peaks near 31°C. Official PAGASA guidance for August 19 projects a 24–31°C range with a 60% rain probability, while recent model consensus and observed trends favor peaks clustered around 27–29°C as convective activity limits solar heating. These conditions create genuine uncertainty around exact maxima, with outcomes near 28°C carrying the highest market-implied probability because monsoon-enhanced humidity and precipitation timing can shave several degrees from otherwise warmer baselines. Updated PAGASA outlooks and short-range model runs over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$81End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent southwest monsoon activity across Luzon continues to drive cloud cover and scattered showers into mid-August 2026, moderating daytime maxima in Metro Manila below typical seasonal peaks near 31°C. Official PAGASA guidance for August 19 projects a 24–31°C range with a 60% rain probability, while recent model consensus and observed trends favor peaks clustered around 27–29°C as convective activity limits solar heating. These conditions create genuine uncertainty around exact maxima, with outcomes near 28°C carrying the highest market-implied probability because monsoon-enhanced humidity and precipitation timing can shave several degrees from otherwise warmer baselines. Updated PAGASA outlooks and short-range model runs over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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