Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo indicate mostly cloudy conditions on August 19 with maximum temperatures likely near 31–33°C, aligning with the market’s emphasis on 31°C as the leading outcome. This positioning reflects the persistent influence of a strengthened Pacific High, which sustains typical late-summer heat and humidity levels around the 31°C August average, while urban heat-island effects in the capital amplify daytime readings. Mostly cloudy skies and low shower probabilities may limit further intensification, keeping extremes above 34°C or below 29°C less probable according to current model consensus. Updated short-range guidance expected in the next 48 hours could refine these implied probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 19?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 19?
31°C 33%
30°C 27%
32°C 25%
29°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 19, 2026
25°C or below
1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
5%
29°C
10%
30°C
27%
31°C
33%
32°C
25%
33°C
6%
34°C
4%
35°C or higher
1%
31°C 33%
30°C 27%
32°C 25%
29°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 19, 2026
25°C or below
$181 Vol.
1%
26°C
$17 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$13 Vol.
1%
28°C
$50 Vol.
5%
29°C
$52 Vol.
10%
30°C
$5 Vol.
27%
31°C
$73 Vol.
33%
32°C
$60 Vol.
25%
33°C
$107 Vol.
6%
34°C
$5 Vol.
4%
35°C or higher
$17 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo indicate mostly cloudy conditions on August 19 with maximum temperatures likely near 31–33°C, aligning with the market’s emphasis on 31°C as the leading outcome. This positioning reflects the persistent influence of a strengthened Pacific High, which sustains typical late-summer heat and humidity levels around the 31°C August average, while urban heat-island effects in the capital amplify daytime readings. Mostly cloudy skies and low shower probabilities may limit further intensification, keeping extremes above 34°C or below 29°C less probable according to current model consensus. Updated short-range guidance expected in the next 48 hours could refine these implied probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$580End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo indicate mostly cloudy conditions on August 19 with maximum temperatures likely near 31–33°C, aligning with the market’s emphasis on 31°C as the leading outcome. This positioning reflects the persistent influence of a strengthened Pacific High, which sustains typical late-summer heat and humidity levels around the 31°C August average, while urban heat-island effects in the capital amplify daytime readings. Mostly cloudy skies and low shower probabilities may limit further intensification, keeping extremes above 34°C or below 29°C less probable according to current model consensus. Updated short-range guidance expected in the next 48 hours could refine these implied probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$580End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo indicate mostly cloudy conditions on August 19 with maximum temperatures likely near 31–33°C, aligning with the market’s emphasis on 31°C as the leading outcome. This positioning reflects the persistent influence of a strengthened Pacific High, which sustains typical late-summer heat and humidity levels around the 31°C August average, while urban heat-island effects in the capital amplify daytime readings. Mostly cloudy skies and low shower probabilities may limit further intensification, keeping extremes above 34°C or below 29°C less probable according to current model consensus. Updated short-range guidance expected in the next 48 hours could refine these implied probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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