Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo on August 17 point to cloudy skies with scattered showers, which limit solar heating and position maximum temperatures near the seasonal normal of 31.4°C. This aligns with trader emphasis on the 30°C outcome, as cloud cover and precipitation reduce the likelihood of exceeding typical August peaks despite the broader summer 2026 outlook for above-normal warmth across Japan. Urban heat island effects in Tokyo may add marginal warmth, but high humidity and potential convective activity introduce variability that models resolve around 29–31°C. Updated guidance on atmospheric steering and rainfall timing will likely refine these implied probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 17?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 17?
30°C 44%
29°C 28%
31°C 15%
28°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 17, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
3%
28°C
7%
29°C
28%
30°C
44%
31°C
15%
32°C
3%
33°C
1%
34°C or higher
1%
30°C 44%
29°C 28%
31°C 15%
28°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 17, 2026
24°C or below
$1,197 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$815 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$348 Vol.
1%
27°C
$610 Vol.
3%
28°C
$1,298 Vol.
7%
29°C
$1,255 Vol.
28%
30°C
$1,103 Vol.
44%
31°C
$440 Vol.
15%
32°C
$314 Vol.
3%
33°C
$234 Vol.
1%
34°C or higher
$408 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo on August 17 point to cloudy skies with scattered showers, which limit solar heating and position maximum temperatures near the seasonal normal of 31.4°C. This aligns with trader emphasis on the 30°C outcome, as cloud cover and precipitation reduce the likelihood of exceeding typical August peaks despite the broader summer 2026 outlook for above-normal warmth across Japan. Urban heat island effects in Tokyo may add marginal warmth, but high humidity and potential convective activity introduce variability that models resolve around 29–31°C. Updated guidance on atmospheric steering and rainfall timing will likely refine these implied probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 15, 2026, 4:05 PM ET
Volume
$8,024End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:05 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo on August 17 point to cloudy skies with scattered showers, which limit solar heating and position maximum temperatures near the seasonal normal of 31.4°C. This aligns with trader emphasis on the 30°C outcome, as cloud cover and precipitation reduce the likelihood of exceeding typical August peaks despite the broader summer 2026 outlook for above-normal warmth across Japan. Urban heat island effects in Tokyo may add marginal warmth, but high humidity and potential convective activity introduce variability that models resolve around 29–31°C. Updated guidance on atmospheric steering and rainfall timing will likely refine these implied probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$8,024End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:05 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo on August 17 point to cloudy skies with scattered showers, which limit solar heating and position maximum temperatures near the seasonal normal of 31.4°C. This aligns with trader emphasis on the 30°C outcome, as cloud cover and precipitation reduce the likelihood of exceeding typical August peaks despite the broader summer 2026 outlook for above-normal warmth across Japan. Urban heat island effects in Tokyo may add marginal warmth, but high humidity and potential convective activity introduce variability that models resolve around 29–31°C. Updated guidance on atmospheric steering and rainfall timing will likely refine these implied probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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