**Forecast uncertainty around potential thundery showers is the main driver of the closely matched probabilities for 24–26°C as Milan’s highest temperature on August 20.** Official guidance from sources like the Met Office, BBC Weather, and timeanddate.com shows daytime maxima centered near 26–28°C (roughly 79–82°F), with thunderstorms or increased cloud cover expected to limit afternoon heating in the Po Valley. Ensemble runs from ECMWF and GFS exhibit spread due to differences in the timing and extent of instability, boundary-layer moisture, and any urban heat-island amplification versus cooling from showers—factors that readily differentiate outcomes separated by just 1–2°C. Historical August maxima near 30°C provide context, but the current setup favors moderation relative to the hotter conditions seen earlier in the month. Updated model guidance and observational data in the next 24–48 hours remain the key catalysts that could shift trader consensus before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on August 20?
Highest temperature in Milan on August 20?
25°C 41%
26°C 32%
24°C 30%
23°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 20, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
5%
23°C
10%
24°C
30%
25°C
41%
26°C
32%
27°C
14%
28°C
4%
29°C
4%
30°C or higher
<1%
25°C 41%
26°C 32%
24°C 30%
23°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 20, 2026
20°C or below
$5 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$4 Vol.
1%
22°C
$0 Vol.
5%
23°C
$0 Vol.
10%
24°C
$0 Vol.
30%
25°C
$0 Vol.
41%
26°C
$0 Vol.
32%
27°C
$12 Vol.
14%
28°C
$5 Vol.
4%
29°C
$5 Vol.
4%
30°C or higher
$5 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast uncertainty around potential thundery showers is the main driver of the closely matched probabilities for 24–26°C as Milan’s highest temperature on August 20.** Official guidance from sources like the Met Office, BBC Weather, and timeanddate.com shows daytime maxima centered near 26–28°C (roughly 79–82°F), with thunderstorms or increased cloud cover expected to limit afternoon heating in the Po Valley.
Ensemble runs from ECMWF and GFS exhibit spread due to differences in the timing and extent of instability, boundary-layer moisture, and any urban heat-island amplification versus cooling from showers—factors that readily differentiate outcomes separated by just 1–2°C. Historical August maxima near 30°C provide context, but the current setup favors moderation relative to the hotter conditions seen earlier in the month. Updated model guidance and observational data in the next 24–48 hours remain the key catalysts that could shift trader consensus before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 18, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$36End Date
Aug 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast uncertainty around potential thundery showers is the main driver of the closely matched probabilities for 24–26°C as Milan’s highest temperature on August 20.** Official guidance from sources like the Met Office, BBC Weather, and timeanddate.com shows daytime maxima centered near 26–28°C (roughly 79–82°F), with thunderstorms or increased cloud cover expected to limit afternoon heating in the Po Valley.
Ensemble runs from ECMWF and GFS exhibit spread due to differences in the timing and extent of instability, boundary-layer moisture, and any urban heat-island amplification versus cooling from showers—factors that readily differentiate outcomes separated by just 1–2°C. Historical August maxima near 30°C provide context, but the current setup favors moderation relative to the hotter conditions seen earlier in the month. Updated model guidance and observational data in the next 24–48 hours remain the key catalysts that could shift trader consensus before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$36End Date
Aug 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast uncertainty around potential thundery showers is the main driver of the closely matched probabilities for 24–26°C as Milan’s highest temperature on August 20.** Official guidance from sources like the Met Office, BBC Weather, and timeanddate.com shows daytime maxima centered near 26–28°C (roughly 79–82°F), with thunderstorms or increased cloud cover expected to limit afternoon heating in the Po Valley. Ensemble runs from ECMWF and GFS exhibit spread due to differences in the timing and extent of instability, boundary-layer moisture, and any urban heat-island amplification versus cooling from showers—factors that readily differentiate outcomes separated by just 1–2°C. Historical August maxima near 30°C provide context, but the current setup favors moderation relative to the hotter conditions seen earlier in the month. Updated model guidance and observational data in the next 24–48 hours remain the key catalysts that could shift trader consensus before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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