Recent ensemble forecasts from major meteorological centers indicate a minimum temperature of 27°C for Shanghai on August 20, driven by persistent high humidity, widespread cloud cover, and scattered thundershowers that limit radiative cooling overnight. These conditions align with typical mid-August climatology, where average lows range 25–27°C amid the East Asian monsoon influence. Trader consensus at 56% for 27°C reflects model agreement on minimal deviation, with 28°C as the secondary outcome at 28.5% if daytime heating lingers longer. Updated runs from the China Meteorological Administration and global models over the next 24 hours represent the key data point that could shift probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on August 20?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on August 20?
27°C 58%
28°C 27%
26°C 13%
29°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Aug 20, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
3%
26°C
13%
27°C
58%
28°C
27%
29°C
3%
30°C
1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
27°C 58%
28°C 27%
26°C 13%
29°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Aug 20, 2026
22°C or below
$8 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$13 Vol.
1%
24°C
$15 Vol.
1%
25°C
$8 Vol.
3%
26°C
$53 Vol.
13%
27°C
$276 Vol.
58%
28°C
$52 Vol.
27%
29°C
$16 Vol.
3%
30°C
$49 Vol.
1%
31°C
$206 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$20 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from major meteorological centers indicate a minimum temperature of 27°C for Shanghai on August 20, driven by persistent high humidity, widespread cloud cover, and scattered thundershowers that limit radiative cooling overnight. These conditions align with typical mid-August climatology, where average lows range 25–27°C amid the East Asian monsoon influence. Trader consensus at 56% for 27°C reflects model agreement on minimal deviation, with 28°C as the secondary outcome at 28.5% if daytime heating lingers longer. Updated runs from the China Meteorological Administration and global models over the next 24 hours represent the key data point that could shift probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 18, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$717End Date
Aug 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from major meteorological centers indicate a minimum temperature of 27°C for Shanghai on August 20, driven by persistent high humidity, widespread cloud cover, and scattered thundershowers that limit radiative cooling overnight. These conditions align with typical mid-August climatology, where average lows range 25–27°C amid the East Asian monsoon influence. Trader consensus at 56% for 27°C reflects model agreement on minimal deviation, with 28°C as the secondary outcome at 28.5% if daytime heating lingers longer. Updated runs from the China Meteorological Administration and global models over the next 24 hours represent the key data point that could shift probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$717End Date
Aug 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from major meteorological centers indicate a minimum temperature of 27°C for Shanghai on August 20, driven by persistent high humidity, widespread cloud cover, and scattered thundershowers that limit radiative cooling overnight. These conditions align with typical mid-August climatology, where average lows range 25–27°C amid the East Asian monsoon influence. Trader consensus at 56% for 27°C reflects model agreement on minimal deviation, with 28°C as the secondary outcome at 28.5% if daytime heating lingers longer. Updated runs from the China Meteorological Administration and global models over the next 24 hours represent the key data point that could shift probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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