Recent ensemble forecasts from global models position Shanghai's August 20 high near 30–31°C, with the tight market split between these outcomes reflecting modest differences in simulated cloud cover, moisture, and boundary-layer mixing over the next 48 hours. Persistent subtropical ridge influence supports warmth, yet increasing chances of scattered thunderstorms and onshore flow from the East China Sea introduce cooling that keeps 32°C or higher at low implied odds. Historical August maxima average 31–32°C, providing context for why traders assign the bulk of probability to the narrow 29–31°C window while awaiting the next model cycle and official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on August 20?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 20?
30°C 38%
31°C 34%
29°C 14%
32°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 20, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
4%
29°C
14%
30°C
38%
31°C
34%
32°C
10%
33°C
2%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
30°C 38%
31°C 34%
29°C 14%
32°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 20, 2026
25°C or below
$291 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$286 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$607 Vol.
1%
28°C
$365 Vol.
4%
29°C
$445 Vol.
14%
30°C
$487 Vol.
38%
31°C
$257 Vol.
34%
32°C
$1,823 Vol.
10%
33°C
$210 Vol.
2%
34°C
$176 Vol.
<1%
35°C or higher
$171 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from global models position Shanghai's August 20 high near 30–31°C, with the tight market split between these outcomes reflecting modest differences in simulated cloud cover, moisture, and boundary-layer mixing over the next 48 hours. Persistent subtropical ridge influence supports warmth, yet increasing chances of scattered thunderstorms and onshore flow from the East China Sea introduce cooling that keeps 32°C or higher at low implied odds. Historical August maxima average 31–32°C, providing context for why traders assign the bulk of probability to the narrow 29–31°C window while awaiting the next model cycle and official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 18, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$4,928End Date
Aug 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from global models position Shanghai's August 20 high near 30–31°C, with the tight market split between these outcomes reflecting modest differences in simulated cloud cover, moisture, and boundary-layer mixing over the next 48 hours. Persistent subtropical ridge influence supports warmth, yet increasing chances of scattered thunderstorms and onshore flow from the East China Sea introduce cooling that keeps 32°C or higher at low implied odds. Historical August maxima average 31–32°C, providing context for why traders assign the bulk of probability to the narrow 29–31°C window while awaiting the next model cycle and official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,928End Date
Aug 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from global models position Shanghai's August 20 high near 30–31°C, with the tight market split between these outcomes reflecting modest differences in simulated cloud cover, moisture, and boundary-layer mixing over the next 48 hours. Persistent subtropical ridge influence supports warmth, yet increasing chances of scattered thunderstorms and onshore flow from the East China Sea introduce cooling that keeps 32°C or higher at low implied odds. Historical August maxima average 31–32°C, providing context for why traders assign the bulk of probability to the narrow 29–31°C window while awaiting the next model cycle and official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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