Latest ensemble forecasts from major models indicate a narrow range centered near 24–25°C for Paris maximum temperatures on August 20, with close market probabilities reflecting genuine uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover. A passing Atlantic trough is introducing cooler maritime air and increased low-level moisture, limiting diurnal heating compared to the preceding heatwave period. Historical August climatology shows typical highs near 25°C, but current steering patterns and soil moisture anomalies favor modest suppression. Updated runs from European and global models over the next 24 hours, alongside surface observations, will refine whether weak subsidence or scattered showers tip the outcome toward the lower or upper end of this tight cluster.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Paris on August 20?
Highest temperature in Paris on August 20?
24°C 42%
25°C 38%
26°C 12%
27°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 20, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
4%
23°C
7%
24°C
42%
25°C
38%
26°C
12%
27°C
8%
28°C
1%
29°C or higher
<1%
24°C 42%
25°C 38%
26°C 12%
27°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 20, 2026
19°C or below
$181 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$208 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$203 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$10 Vol.
4%
23°C
$197 Vol.
7%
24°C
$265 Vol.
42%
25°C
$398 Vol.
38%
26°C
$266 Vol.
12%
27°C
$235 Vol.
8%
28°C
$276 Vol.
1%
29°C or higher
$176 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from major models indicate a narrow range centered near 24–25°C for Paris maximum temperatures on August 20, with close market probabilities reflecting genuine uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover. A passing Atlantic trough is introducing cooler maritime air and increased low-level moisture, limiting diurnal heating compared to the preceding heatwave period. Historical August climatology shows typical highs near 25°C, but current steering patterns and soil moisture anomalies favor modest suppression. Updated runs from European and global models over the next 24 hours, alongside surface observations, will refine whether weak subsidence or scattered showers tip the outcome toward the lower or upper end of this tight cluster.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 18, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
Volume
$2,414End Date
Aug 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from major models indicate a narrow range centered near 24–25°C for Paris maximum temperatures on August 20, with close market probabilities reflecting genuine uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover. A passing Atlantic trough is introducing cooler maritime air and increased low-level moisture, limiting diurnal heating compared to the preceding heatwave period. Historical August climatology shows typical highs near 25°C, but current steering patterns and soil moisture anomalies favor modest suppression. Updated runs from European and global models over the next 24 hours, alongside surface observations, will refine whether weak subsidence or scattered showers tip the outcome toward the lower or upper end of this tight cluster.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,414End Date
Aug 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from major models indicate a narrow range centered near 24–25°C for Paris maximum temperatures on August 20, with close market probabilities reflecting genuine uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover. A passing Atlantic trough is introducing cooler maritime air and increased low-level moisture, limiting diurnal heating compared to the preceding heatwave period. Historical August climatology shows typical highs near 25°C, but current steering patterns and soil moisture anomalies favor modest suppression. Updated runs from European and global models over the next 24 hours, alongside surface observations, will refine whether weak subsidence or scattered showers tip the outcome toward the lower or upper end of this tight cluster.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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