**Met Office guidance points to a 23°C maximum for London on August 20, with sunny intervals and a 40% chance of rain around midday, aligning closely with the market's leading 23°C and 22°C outcomes.** This reflects the transition from a prolonged warm spell—driven by high pressure and southerly flows earlier in August—to a more Atlantic-influenced pattern introducing increased cloud cover and light showers that limit daytime heating. Model consensus and historical August variability around 21–24°C explain the tight clustering at 22–24°C (over 77% combined implied probability), while lower odds on 25°C+ or sub-21°C outcomes capture residual uncertainty in precipitation timing, wind strength, and urban heat-island effects at official stations. Updated model runs and Met Office briefings in the next 24–48 hours remain the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in London on August 20?
Highest temperature in London on August 20?
23°C 33%
22°C 27%
24°C 19%
21°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 20, 2026
19°C or below
2%
20°C
4%
21°C
15%
22°C
27%
23°C
33%
24°C
19%
25°C
5%
26°C
2%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
23°C 33%
22°C 27%
24°C 19%
21°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 20, 2026
19°C or below
$34 Vol.
2%
20°C
$55 Vol.
4%
21°C
$259 Vol.
15%
22°C
$214 Vol.
27%
23°C
$724 Vol.
33%
24°C
$985 Vol.
19%
25°C
$77 Vol.
5%
26°C
$88 Vol.
2%
27°C
$322 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$386 Vol.
<1%
29°C or higher
$386 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Met Office guidance points to a 23°C maximum for London on August 20, with sunny intervals and a 40% chance of rain around midday, aligning closely with the market's leading 23°C and 22°C outcomes.**
This reflects the transition from a prolonged warm spell—driven by high pressure and southerly flows earlier in August—to a more Atlantic-influenced pattern introducing increased cloud cover and light showers that limit daytime heating. Model consensus and historical August variability around 21–24°C explain the tight clustering at 22–24°C (over 77% combined implied probability), while lower odds on 25°C+ or sub-21°C outcomes capture residual uncertainty in precipitation timing, wind strength, and urban heat-island effects at official stations. Updated model runs and Met Office briefings in the next 24–48 hours remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 18, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
Volume
$3,529End Date
Aug 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Met Office guidance points to a 23°C maximum for London on August 20, with sunny intervals and a 40% chance of rain around midday, aligning closely with the market's leading 23°C and 22°C outcomes.**
This reflects the transition from a prolonged warm spell—driven by high pressure and southerly flows earlier in August—to a more Atlantic-influenced pattern introducing increased cloud cover and light showers that limit daytime heating. Model consensus and historical August variability around 21–24°C explain the tight clustering at 22–24°C (over 77% combined implied probability), while lower odds on 25°C+ or sub-21°C outcomes capture residual uncertainty in precipitation timing, wind strength, and urban heat-island effects at official stations. Updated model runs and Met Office briefings in the next 24–48 hours remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,529End Date
Aug 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Met Office guidance points to a 23°C maximum for London on August 20, with sunny intervals and a 40% chance of rain around midday, aligning closely with the market's leading 23°C and 22°C outcomes.** This reflects the transition from a prolonged warm spell—driven by high pressure and southerly flows earlier in August—to a more Atlantic-influenced pattern introducing increased cloud cover and light showers that limit daytime heating. Model consensus and historical August variability around 21–24°C explain the tight clustering at 22–24°C (over 77% combined implied probability), while lower odds on 25°C+ or sub-21°C outcomes capture residual uncertainty in precipitation timing, wind strength, and urban heat-island effects at official stations. Updated model runs and Met Office briefings in the next 24–48 hours remain the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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