Recent Met Office and ECMWF model guidance shows London transitioning from a mid-August heatwave peak toward more variable conditions, with a weak front introducing increased cloud cover and light winds that limit surface heating on the 19th. Ensemble forecasts converge on daytime maxima near 23–24°C under partly cloudy skies, aligning with the tight market split between those two bins at roughly 30% and 28% implied probability. Key differentiating factors include exact timing of any breaks in cloud, which could add 1°C of insolation-driven warming, versus modest moisture advection that suppresses the peak. Historical August baselines for central London average around 22°C, so current guidance sits slightly above normal yet far below recent extremes near 38°C. Updated model runs and Met Office briefings over the next 48 hours will refine boundary-layer details ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in London on August 19?
Highest temperature in London on August 19?
24°C 31%
23°C 29%
25°C 18%
22°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 19, 2026
20°C or below
1%
21°C
7%
22°C
12%
23°C
29%
24°C
31%
25°C
18%
26°C
6%
27°C
4%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
24°C 31%
23°C 29%
25°C 18%
22°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 19, 2026
20°C or below
$18 Vol.
1%
21°C
$10 Vol.
7%
22°C
$25 Vol.
12%
23°C
$71 Vol.
29%
24°C
$74 Vol.
31%
25°C
$86 Vol.
18%
26°C
$100 Vol.
6%
27°C
$5 Vol.
4%
28°C
$107 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$286 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$276 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office and ECMWF model guidance shows London transitioning from a mid-August heatwave peak toward more variable conditions, with a weak front introducing increased cloud cover and light winds that limit surface heating on the 19th. Ensemble forecasts converge on daytime maxima near 23–24°C under partly cloudy skies, aligning with the tight market split between those two bins at roughly 30% and 28% implied probability. Key differentiating factors include exact timing of any breaks in cloud, which could add 1°C of insolation-driven warming, versus modest moisture advection that suppresses the peak. Historical August baselines for central London average around 22°C, so current guidance sits slightly above normal yet far below recent extremes near 38°C. Updated model runs and Met Office briefings over the next 48 hours will refine boundary-layer details ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
Volume
$369End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office and ECMWF model guidance shows London transitioning from a mid-August heatwave peak toward more variable conditions, with a weak front introducing increased cloud cover and light winds that limit surface heating on the 19th. Ensemble forecasts converge on daytime maxima near 23–24°C under partly cloudy skies, aligning with the tight market split between those two bins at roughly 30% and 28% implied probability. Key differentiating factors include exact timing of any breaks in cloud, which could add 1°C of insolation-driven warming, versus modest moisture advection that suppresses the peak. Historical August baselines for central London average around 22°C, so current guidance sits slightly above normal yet far below recent extremes near 38°C. Updated model runs and Met Office briefings over the next 48 hours will refine boundary-layer details ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$369End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Met Office and ECMWF model guidance shows London transitioning from a mid-August heatwave peak toward more variable conditions, with a weak front introducing increased cloud cover and light winds that limit surface heating on the 19th. Ensemble forecasts converge on daytime maxima near 23–24°C under partly cloudy skies, aligning with the tight market split between those two bins at roughly 30% and 28% implied probability. Key differentiating factors include exact timing of any breaks in cloud, which could add 1°C of insolation-driven warming, versus modest moisture advection that suppresses the peak. Historical August baselines for central London average around 22°C, so current guidance sits slightly above normal yet far below recent extremes near 38°C. Updated model runs and Met Office briefings over the next 48 hours will refine boundary-layer details ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions