Recent forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF models show a post-heatwave cooldown arriving over northern France, with a north-easterly flow bringing cooler, drier air and possible showers to the Paris basin by August 22. This setup favors overnight lows near 11–13 °C, consistent with the market’s heaviest volume on those bins. Climatologically, late-August Paris minima average 14–15 °C, but the current synoptic pattern—weakened high pressure and increased cloud cover—supports a 2–4 °C departure below the seasonal baseline. Model consensus remains tight on the 48-hour window, with limited spread among guidance; any deviation would require an unexpected ridge rebuild or stronger southerly advection. Updated runs tonight and tomorrow morning will be the next key data points for traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on August 22?
Lowest temperature in Paris on August 22?
12°C 47%
11°C 20%
13°C 19%
14°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 22, 2026
9°C or below
7%
10°C
3%
11°C
20%
12°C
47%
13°C
21%
14°C
8%
15°C
3%
16°C
2%
17°C
1%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
<1%
12°C 47%
11°C 20%
13°C 19%
14°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 22, 2026
9°C or below
$0 Vol.
7%
10°C
$33 Vol.
3%
11°C
$45 Vol.
20%
12°C
$1,114 Vol.
47%
13°C
$107 Vol.
21%
14°C
$43 Vol.
8%
15°C
$320 Vol.
3%
16°C
$5 Vol.
2%
17°C
$5 Vol.
1%
18°C
$68 Vol.
<1%
19°C or higher
$13 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF models show a post-heatwave cooldown arriving over northern France, with a north-easterly flow bringing cooler, drier air and possible showers to the Paris basin by August 22. This setup favors overnight lows near 11–13 °C, consistent with the market’s heaviest volume on those bins. Climatologically, late-August Paris minima average 14–15 °C, but the current synoptic pattern—weakened high pressure and increased cloud cover—supports a 2–4 °C departure below the seasonal baseline. Model consensus remains tight on the 48-hour window, with limited spread among guidance; any deviation would require an unexpected ridge rebuild or stronger southerly advection. Updated runs tonight and tomorrow morning will be the next key data points for traders.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$1,753End Date
Aug 22, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF models show a post-heatwave cooldown arriving over northern France, with a north-easterly flow bringing cooler, drier air and possible showers to the Paris basin by August 22. This setup favors overnight lows near 11–13 °C, consistent with the market’s heaviest volume on those bins. Climatologically, late-August Paris minima average 14–15 °C, but the current synoptic pattern—weakened high pressure and increased cloud cover—supports a 2–4 °C departure below the seasonal baseline. Model consensus remains tight on the 48-hour window, with limited spread among guidance; any deviation would require an unexpected ridge rebuild or stronger southerly advection. Updated runs tonight and tomorrow morning will be the next key data points for traders.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,753End Date
Aug 22, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF models show a post-heatwave cooldown arriving over northern France, with a north-easterly flow bringing cooler, drier air and possible showers to the Paris basin by August 22. This setup favors overnight lows near 11–13 °C, consistent with the market’s heaviest volume on those bins. Climatologically, late-August Paris minima average 14–15 °C, but the current synoptic pattern—weakened high pressure and increased cloud cover—supports a 2–4 °C departure below the seasonal baseline. Model consensus remains tight on the 48-hour window, with limited spread among guidance; any deviation would require an unexpected ridge rebuild or stronger southerly advection. Updated runs tonight and tomorrow morning will be the next key data points for traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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