Recent European weather model consensus, including guidance aligned with National Meteorological Service outlooks, points to a daily maximum near 22–23 °C in Munich on August 22, driven by moderating westerly flow and limited daytime heating under variable cloud cover. This aligns with the market’s heaviest weighting on those two outcomes. A recent cooling shift from mid-August warmth, combined with expected light winds and modest moisture, has lowered probabilities for 25 °C or higher while supporting the 21–24 °C cluster. Updated model runs over the next 24–48 hours and official high-temperature verification will remain the key catalysts for any further shifts in trader-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Munich on August 22?
Highest temperature in Munich on August 22?
22°C 39%
23°C 25%
21°C 19%
24°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 22, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
1%
20°C
4%
21°C
19%
22°C
39%
23°C
25%
24°C
12%
25°C
2%
26°C
1%
27°C or higher
<1%
22°C 39%
23°C 25%
21°C 19%
24°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 22, 2026
17°C or below
$5 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$5 Vol.
1%
19°C
$5 Vol.
1%
20°C
$12 Vol.
4%
21°C
$10 Vol.
19%
22°C
$98 Vol.
39%
23°C
$39 Vol.
25%
24°C
$60 Vol.
12%
25°C
$30 Vol.
2%
26°C
$41 Vol.
1%
27°C or higher
$145 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent European weather model consensus, including guidance aligned with National Meteorological Service outlooks, points to a daily maximum near 22–23 °C in Munich on August 22, driven by moderating westerly flow and limited daytime heating under variable cloud cover. This aligns with the market’s heaviest weighting on those two outcomes. A recent cooling shift from mid-August warmth, combined with expected light winds and modest moisture, has lowered probabilities for 25 °C or higher while supporting the 21–24 °C cluster. Updated model runs over the next 24–48 hours and official high-temperature verification will remain the key catalysts for any further shifts in trader-implied odds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$448End Date
Aug 22, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent European weather model consensus, including guidance aligned with National Meteorological Service outlooks, points to a daily maximum near 22–23 °C in Munich on August 22, driven by moderating westerly flow and limited daytime heating under variable cloud cover. This aligns with the market’s heaviest weighting on those two outcomes. A recent cooling shift from mid-August warmth, combined with expected light winds and modest moisture, has lowered probabilities for 25 °C or higher while supporting the 21–24 °C cluster. Updated model runs over the next 24–48 hours and official high-temperature verification will remain the key catalysts for any further shifts in trader-implied odds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$448End Date
Aug 22, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent European weather model consensus, including guidance aligned with National Meteorological Service outlooks, points to a daily maximum near 22–23 °C in Munich on August 22, driven by moderating westerly flow and limited daytime heating under variable cloud cover. This aligns with the market’s heaviest weighting on those two outcomes. A recent cooling shift from mid-August warmth, combined with expected light winds and modest moisture, has lowered probabilities for 25 °C or higher while supporting the 21–24 °C cluster. Updated model runs over the next 24–48 hours and official high-temperature verification will remain the key catalysts for any further shifts in trader-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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