Recent forecast model consensus from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration points to thunderstorms and increased cloud cover on August 28, capping peak temperatures in Chengdu near 30–33 °C after a clearer, hotter 34 °C day on the 27th. Reduced solar insolation from convective clouds, combined with evaporative cooling from scattered showers, differentiates the closely matched market-implied probabilities for 32–35 °C outcomes. High humidity typical of the East Asian monsoon further modulates surface heating, while steering patterns keep the region under weak pressure gradients with limited warm advection. Updated runs through the 48-hour window will clarify whether stronger instability suppresses the high below 32 °C or allows brief breaks to push it higher.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on August 28?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 28?
33°C 24%
32°C 21%
35°C or higher 20%
34°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
2%
27°C
2%
28°C
2%
29°C
5%
30°C
9%
31°C
15%
32°C
21%
33°C
24%
34°C
18%
35°C or higher
20%
33°C 24%
32°C 21%
35°C or higher 20%
34°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
25°C or below
$273 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$5 Vol.
2%
27°C
$47 Vol.
2%
28°C
$32 Vol.
2%
29°C
$7 Vol.
5%
30°C
$0 Vol.
9%
31°C
$28 Vol.
15%
32°C
$5 Vol.
21%
33°C
$28 Vol.
24%
34°C
$15 Vol.
18%
35°C or higher
$0 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration points to thunderstorms and increased cloud cover on August 28, capping peak temperatures in Chengdu near 30–33 °C after a clearer, hotter 34 °C day on the 27th. Reduced solar insolation from convective clouds, combined with evaporative cooling from scattered showers, differentiates the closely matched market-implied probabilities for 32–35 °C outcomes. High humidity typical of the East Asian monsoon further modulates surface heating, while steering patterns keep the region under weak pressure gradients with limited warm advection. Updated runs through the 48-hour window will clarify whether stronger instability suppresses the high below 32 °C or allows brief breaks to push it higher.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$439End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration points to thunderstorms and increased cloud cover on August 28, capping peak temperatures in Chengdu near 30–33 °C after a clearer, hotter 34 °C day on the 27th. Reduced solar insolation from convective clouds, combined with evaporative cooling from scattered showers, differentiates the closely matched market-implied probabilities for 32–35 °C outcomes. High humidity typical of the East Asian monsoon further modulates surface heating, while steering patterns keep the region under weak pressure gradients with limited warm advection. Updated runs through the 48-hour window will clarify whether stronger instability suppresses the high below 32 °C or allows brief breaks to push it higher.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$439End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model consensus from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration points to thunderstorms and increased cloud cover on August 28, capping peak temperatures in Chengdu near 30–33 °C after a clearer, hotter 34 °C day on the 27th. Reduced solar insolation from convective clouds, combined with evaporative cooling from scattered showers, differentiates the closely matched market-implied probabilities for 32–35 °C outcomes. High humidity typical of the East Asian monsoon further modulates surface heating, while steering patterns keep the region under weak pressure gradients with limited warm advection. Updated runs through the 48-hour window will clarify whether stronger instability suppresses the high below 32 °C or allows brief breaks to push it higher.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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