Recent northwest wind flows and mild air advection ahead of an approaching front have driven forecast highs for Wellington on August 26 into the 14–15°C range, aligning with the market's strong consensus on 16°C and 15°C as the leading outcomes. Official guidance from MetService and international models shows mostly cloudy, windy conditions with limited daytime warming, tempered by the region's typical spring transition variability. Recent observations, including a 17°C peak on August 23, have reinforced trader expectations for modestly above-climatological values, while the low probabilities for 17°C or higher reflect limited potential for stronger warming before the system shifts. Updated model runs and surface observations tomorrow morning will be the key near-term catalysts for any adjustments in implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on August 26?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 26?
16°C 61%
15°C 33%
17°C 7%
14°C 1.6%
NEW
$21,007 Vol.
NEW
$21,007 Vol.
Aug 26, 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
2%
15°C
33%
16°C
61%
17°C
7%
18°C
2%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
16°C 61%
15°C 33%
17°C 7%
14°C 1.6%
NEW
$21,007 Vol.
NEW
$21,007 Vol.
Aug 26, 2026
10°C or below
$1,332 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$289 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$1,333 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$239 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$1,671 Vol.
2%
15°C
$6,457 Vol.
33%
16°C
$3,912 Vol.
61%
17°C
$3,606 Vol.
7%
18°C
$1,648 Vol.
2%
19°C
$252 Vol.
<1%
20°C or higher
$269 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent northwest wind flows and mild air advection ahead of an approaching front have driven forecast highs for Wellington on August 26 into the 14–15°C range, aligning with the market's strong consensus on 16°C and 15°C as the leading outcomes. Official guidance from MetService and international models shows mostly cloudy, windy conditions with limited daytime warming, tempered by the region's typical spring transition variability. Recent observations, including a 17°C peak on August 23, have reinforced trader expectations for modestly above-climatological values, while the low probabilities for 17°C or higher reflect limited potential for stronger warming before the system shifts. Updated model runs and surface observations tomorrow morning will be the key near-term catalysts for any adjustments in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$21,007End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent northwest wind flows and mild air advection ahead of an approaching front have driven forecast highs for Wellington on August 26 into the 14–15°C range, aligning with the market's strong consensus on 16°C and 15°C as the leading outcomes. Official guidance from MetService and international models shows mostly cloudy, windy conditions with limited daytime warming, tempered by the region's typical spring transition variability. Recent observations, including a 17°C peak on August 23, have reinforced trader expectations for modestly above-climatological values, while the low probabilities for 17°C or higher reflect limited potential for stronger warming before the system shifts. Updated model runs and surface observations tomorrow morning will be the key near-term catalysts for any adjustments in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$21,007End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent northwest wind flows and mild air advection ahead of an approaching front have driven forecast highs for Wellington on August 26 into the 14–15°C range, aligning with the market's strong consensus on 16°C and 15°C as the leading outcomes. Official guidance from MetService and international models shows mostly cloudy, windy conditions with limited daytime warming, tempered by the region's typical spring transition variability. Recent observations, including a 17°C peak on August 23, have reinforced trader expectations for modestly above-climatological values, while the low probabilities for 17°C or higher reflect limited potential for stronger warming before the system shifts. Updated model runs and surface observations tomorrow morning will be the key near-term catalysts for any adjustments in implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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