Ensemble weather models from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency show the highest daily temperature in Tokyo on August 25 most likely reaching 33–34°C, with modest spread across runs due to uncertainty in afternoon sea-breeze strength and cloud cover. Subtropical high pressure is expected to maintain hot, humid conditions typical of late-summer climatology, but small shifts in wind direction or timing of any frontal passage could push the maximum a degree lower or higher. Historical August maxima in central Tokyo average near 32–33°C, providing context for why traders assign roughly one-third probability to 34°C and nearly one-quarter to 33°C. New model guidance expected within 24 hours could narrow the range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 25?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 25?
34°C 33%
33°C 24%
35°C 14%
32°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
29°C or below
2%
30°C
2%
31°C
4%
32°C
11%
33°C
24%
34°C
33%
35°C
14%
36°C
4%
37°C
2%
38°C
1%
39°C or higher
1%
34°C 33%
33°C 24%
35°C 14%
32°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
29°C or below
$70 Vol.
2%
30°C
$20 Vol.
2%
31°C
$109 Vol.
4%
32°C
$210 Vol.
11%
33°C
$1,097 Vol.
24%
34°C
$178 Vol.
33%
35°C
$60 Vol.
14%
36°C
$363 Vol.
4%
37°C
$152 Vol.
2%
38°C
$361 Vol.
1%
39°C or higher
$197 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ensemble weather models from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency show the highest daily temperature in Tokyo on August 25 most likely reaching 33–34°C, with modest spread across runs due to uncertainty in afternoon sea-breeze strength and cloud cover. Subtropical high pressure is expected to maintain hot, humid conditions typical of late-summer climatology, but small shifts in wind direction or timing of any frontal passage could push the maximum a degree lower or higher. Historical August maxima in central Tokyo average near 32–33°C, providing context for why traders assign roughly one-third probability to 34°C and nearly one-quarter to 33°C. New model guidance expected within 24 hours could narrow the range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$2,818End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ensemble weather models from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency show the highest daily temperature in Tokyo on August 25 most likely reaching 33–34°C, with modest spread across runs due to uncertainty in afternoon sea-breeze strength and cloud cover. Subtropical high pressure is expected to maintain hot, humid conditions typical of late-summer climatology, but small shifts in wind direction or timing of any frontal passage could push the maximum a degree lower or higher. Historical August maxima in central Tokyo average near 32–33°C, providing context for why traders assign roughly one-third probability to 34°C and nearly one-quarter to 33°C. New model guidance expected within 24 hours could narrow the range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,818End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble weather models from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency show the highest daily temperature in Tokyo on August 25 most likely reaching 33–34°C, with modest spread across runs due to uncertainty in afternoon sea-breeze strength and cloud cover. Subtropical high pressure is expected to maintain hot, humid conditions typical of late-summer climatology, but small shifts in wind direction or timing of any frontal passage could push the maximum a degree lower or higher. Historical August maxima in central Tokyo average near 32–33°C, providing context for why traders assign roughly one-third probability to 34°C and nearly one-quarter to 33°C. New model guidance expected within 24 hours could narrow the range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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