Recent model consensus from sources including GFS and ECMWF runs positions the daily maximum in Amsterdam for August 25 near 23–25 °C, with easterly flow advecting warmer continental air under mostly stable high-pressure influence and limited cloud cover. This supports the market’s heaviest weighting on 24 °C (40 %) and nearby outcomes, as afternoon heating peaks coincide with the forecast window while overnight minima remain in the mid-teens. Earlier August warmth has given way to a brief cooler spell, but the shift in steering pattern has lifted implied probabilities for the upper end of the typical late-summer range; however, small revisions in timing or increased marine-layer moisture could still favor 23 °C. Updated guidance expected within the next 24 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on August 25?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 25?
24°C 40%
23°C 23%
25°C 20%
22°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
20°C or below
2%
21°C
5%
22°C
10%
23°C
23%
24°C
40%
25°C
20%
26°C
9%
27°C
7%
28°C
4%
29°C
2%
30°C or higher
2%
24°C 40%
23°C 23%
25°C 20%
22°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
20°C or below
$5 Vol.
2%
21°C
$0 Vol.
5%
22°C
$0 Vol.
10%
23°C
$15 Vol.
23%
24°C
$0 Vol.
40%
25°C
$0 Vol.
20%
26°C
$0 Vol.
9%
27°C
$20 Vol.
7%
28°C
$20 Vol.
4%
29°C
$5 Vol.
2%
30°C or higher
$5 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources including GFS and ECMWF runs positions the daily maximum in Amsterdam for August 25 near 23–25 °C, with easterly flow advecting warmer continental air under mostly stable high-pressure influence and limited cloud cover. This supports the market’s heaviest weighting on 24 °C (40 %) and nearby outcomes, as afternoon heating peaks coincide with the forecast window while overnight minima remain in the mid-teens. Earlier August warmth has given way to a brief cooler spell, but the shift in steering pattern has lifted implied probabilities for the upper end of the typical late-summer range; however, small revisions in timing or increased marine-layer moisture could still favor 23 °C. Updated guidance expected within the next 24 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$33End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources including GFS and ECMWF runs positions the daily maximum in Amsterdam for August 25 near 23–25 °C, with easterly flow advecting warmer continental air under mostly stable high-pressure influence and limited cloud cover. This supports the market’s heaviest weighting on 24 °C (40 %) and nearby outcomes, as afternoon heating peaks coincide with the forecast window while overnight minima remain in the mid-teens. Earlier August warmth has given way to a brief cooler spell, but the shift in steering pattern has lifted implied probabilities for the upper end of the typical late-summer range; however, small revisions in timing or increased marine-layer moisture could still favor 23 °C. Updated guidance expected within the next 24 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$33End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from sources including GFS and ECMWF runs positions the daily maximum in Amsterdam for August 25 near 23–25 °C, with easterly flow advecting warmer continental air under mostly stable high-pressure influence and limited cloud cover. This supports the market’s heaviest weighting on 24 °C (40 %) and nearby outcomes, as afternoon heating peaks coincide with the forecast window while overnight minima remain in the mid-teens. Earlier August warmth has given way to a brief cooler spell, but the shift in steering pattern has lifted implied probabilities for the upper end of the typical late-summer range; however, small revisions in timing or increased marine-layer moisture could still favor 23 °C. Updated guidance expected within the next 24 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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