Recent northwest flow ahead of a frontal system is driving milder conditions across New Zealand’s lower North Island, supporting market-implied odds favoring a 15°C or 16°C high in Wellington on August 23. Official forecasts from multiple models indicate daytime maxima near 13–14°C under partly cloudy skies with showers and gusty northwest winds, consistent with the region’s August climatology of mean highs around 12–13°C. Strong wind warnings and expected rain may limit peak readings, yet the warmer advection from the northwest has kept probabilities for 14°C or higher dominant. Updated MetService guidance and any shifts in model consensus ahead of the 48-hour window will be key near-term catalysts for trader positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on August 23?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 23?
15°C 52%
16°C 30%
14°C 15%
13°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 23, 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
1%
13°C
4%
14°C
15%
15°C
52%
16°C
30%
17°C
4%
18°C
1%
19°C or higher
1%
15°C 52%
16°C 30%
14°C 15%
13°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 23, 2026
9°C or below
$154 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$142 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$142 Vol.
1%
12°C
$142 Vol.
1%
13°C
$55 Vol.
4%
14°C
$213 Vol.
15%
15°C
$149 Vol.
52%
16°C
$712 Vol.
30%
17°C
$63 Vol.
4%
18°C
$29 Vol.
1%
19°C or higher
$142 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent northwest flow ahead of a frontal system is driving milder conditions across New Zealand’s lower North Island, supporting market-implied odds favoring a 15°C or 16°C high in Wellington on August 23. Official forecasts from multiple models indicate daytime maxima near 13–14°C under partly cloudy skies with showers and gusty northwest winds, consistent with the region’s August climatology of mean highs around 12–13°C. Strong wind warnings and expected rain may limit peak readings, yet the warmer advection from the northwest has kept probabilities for 14°C or higher dominant. Updated MetService guidance and any shifts in model consensus ahead of the 48-hour window will be key near-term catalysts for trader positioning.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,942End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent northwest flow ahead of a frontal system is driving milder conditions across New Zealand’s lower North Island, supporting market-implied odds favoring a 15°C or 16°C high in Wellington on August 23. Official forecasts from multiple models indicate daytime maxima near 13–14°C under partly cloudy skies with showers and gusty northwest winds, consistent with the region’s August climatology of mean highs around 12–13°C. Strong wind warnings and expected rain may limit peak readings, yet the warmer advection from the northwest has kept probabilities for 14°C or higher dominant. Updated MetService guidance and any shifts in model consensus ahead of the 48-hour window will be key near-term catalysts for trader positioning.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,942End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent northwest flow ahead of a frontal system is driving milder conditions across New Zealand’s lower North Island, supporting market-implied odds favoring a 15°C or 16°C high in Wellington on August 23. Official forecasts from multiple models indicate daytime maxima near 13–14°C under partly cloudy skies with showers and gusty northwest winds, consistent with the region’s August climatology of mean highs around 12–13°C. Strong wind warnings and expected rain may limit peak readings, yet the warmer advection from the northwest has kept probabilities for 14°C or higher dominant. Updated MetService guidance and any shifts in model consensus ahead of the 48-hour window will be key near-term catalysts for trader positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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