**Ensemble weather model guidance for Amsterdam on August 23, 2026, currently clusters maximum temperatures in the 19–21 °C range, with supporting runs extending slightly lower, producing the evenly distributed market-implied odds across 17–21 °C.** Short-range forecasts from sources such as the Met Office and regional guidance show a modest daytime peak amid variable cloud cover and light showers, consistent with the post-peak seasonal decline in August highs (climatological average near 21 °C). Key differentiating factors include the strength and timing of any Atlantic trough or frontal passage, North Sea sea-surface temperatures moderating extremes, and diurnal heating limited by boundary-layer moisture and wind patterns. Ensemble spread accounts for the flat probability distribution, as small shifts in cloud timing or advection can move the daily high by 1–2 °C. New model runs and observational updates over the next 48 hours will refine the exact outcome before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on August 23?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 23?
20°C 51%
19°C 36%
21°C 20%
18°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 23, 2026
15°C or below
1%
16°C
1%
17°C
7%
18°C
10%
19°C
26%
20°C
51%
21°C
20%
22°C
5%
23°C
2%
24°C
1%
25°C or higher
1%
20°C 51%
19°C 36%
21°C 20%
18°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 23, 2026
15°C or below
$0 Vol.
1%
16°C
$0 Vol.
1%
17°C
$50 Vol.
7%
18°C
$30 Vol.
10%
19°C
$39 Vol.
26%
20°C
$71 Vol.
51%
21°C
$0 Vol.
20%
22°C
$0 Vol.
5%
23°C
$8 Vol.
2%
24°C
$20 Vol.
1%
25°C or higher
$20 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Ensemble weather model guidance for Amsterdam on August 23, 2026, currently clusters maximum temperatures in the 19–21 °C range, with supporting runs extending slightly lower, producing the evenly distributed market-implied odds across 17–21 °C.**
Short-range forecasts from sources such as the Met Office and regional guidance show a modest daytime peak amid variable cloud cover and light showers, consistent with the post-peak seasonal decline in August highs (climatological average near 21 °C). Key differentiating factors include the strength and timing of any Atlantic trough or frontal passage, North Sea sea-surface temperatures moderating extremes, and diurnal heating limited by boundary-layer moisture and wind patterns. Ensemble spread accounts for the flat probability distribution, as small shifts in cloud timing or advection can move the daily high by 1–2 °C. New model runs and observational updates over the next 48 hours will refine the exact outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$238End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Ensemble weather model guidance for Amsterdam on August 23, 2026, currently clusters maximum temperatures in the 19–21 °C range, with supporting runs extending slightly lower, producing the evenly distributed market-implied odds across 17–21 °C.**
Short-range forecasts from sources such as the Met Office and regional guidance show a modest daytime peak amid variable cloud cover and light showers, consistent with the post-peak seasonal decline in August highs (climatological average near 21 °C). Key differentiating factors include the strength and timing of any Atlantic trough or frontal passage, North Sea sea-surface temperatures moderating extremes, and diurnal heating limited by boundary-layer moisture and wind patterns. Ensemble spread accounts for the flat probability distribution, as small shifts in cloud timing or advection can move the daily high by 1–2 °C. New model runs and observational updates over the next 48 hours will refine the exact outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$238End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Ensemble weather model guidance for Amsterdam on August 23, 2026, currently clusters maximum temperatures in the 19–21 °C range, with supporting runs extending slightly lower, producing the evenly distributed market-implied odds across 17–21 °C.** Short-range forecasts from sources such as the Met Office and regional guidance show a modest daytime peak amid variable cloud cover and light showers, consistent with the post-peak seasonal decline in August highs (climatological average near 21 °C). Key differentiating factors include the strength and timing of any Atlantic trough or frontal passage, North Sea sea-surface temperatures moderating extremes, and diurnal heating limited by boundary-layer moisture and wind patterns. Ensemble spread accounts for the flat probability distribution, as small shifts in cloud timing or advection can move the daily high by 1–2 °C. New model runs and observational updates over the next 48 hours will refine the exact outcome before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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