The closely matched probabilities for 19°C and 20°C as Warsaw’s highest temperature on August 23 stem from ensemble spread in short-range numerical weather prediction models, particularly the ECMWF and GFS runs, which show modest variability in daytime maximums under a transitional late-summer pattern. A weakening high-pressure ridge and light northeasterly flow are limiting strong warm advection while increasing the influence of diurnal heating and boundary-layer mixing; any increase in low-level moisture or partial cloud cover could cap the peak near 19°C, whereas clearer conditions would favor the 20°C threshold. Historical August climatology for the city places typical maxima around 22–24°C, underscoring how current steering patterns and model consensus have shifted the distribution downward. Updated model cycles and observational data from the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management will provide the next refinement before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 23?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 23?
20°C 45%
19°C 38%
21°C 10%
18°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 23, 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
4%
18°C
6%
19°C
38%
20°C
45%
21°C
10%
22°C
6%
23°C
5%
24°C
1%
25°C or higher
1%
20°C 45%
19°C 38%
21°C 10%
18°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 23, 2026
15°C or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$0 Vol.
1%
17°C
$50 Vol.
4%
18°C
$20 Vol.
6%
19°C
$6 Vol.
38%
20°C
$20 Vol.
45%
21°C
$0 Vol.
10%
22°C
$115 Vol.
6%
23°C
$72 Vol.
5%
24°C
$225 Vol.
1%
25°C or higher
$868 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The closely matched probabilities for 19°C and 20°C as Warsaw’s highest temperature on August 23 stem from ensemble spread in short-range numerical weather prediction models, particularly the ECMWF and GFS runs, which show modest variability in daytime maximums under a transitional late-summer pattern. A weakening high-pressure ridge and light northeasterly flow are limiting strong warm advection while increasing the influence of diurnal heating and boundary-layer mixing; any increase in low-level moisture or partial cloud cover could cap the peak near 19°C, whereas clearer conditions would favor the 20°C threshold. Historical August climatology for the city places typical maxima around 22–24°C, underscoring how current steering patterns and model consensus have shifted the distribution downward. Updated model cycles and observational data from the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management will provide the next refinement before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$725End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The closely matched probabilities for 19°C and 20°C as Warsaw’s highest temperature on August 23 stem from ensemble spread in short-range numerical weather prediction models, particularly the ECMWF and GFS runs, which show modest variability in daytime maximums under a transitional late-summer pattern. A weakening high-pressure ridge and light northeasterly flow are limiting strong warm advection while increasing the influence of diurnal heating and boundary-layer mixing; any increase in low-level moisture or partial cloud cover could cap the peak near 19°C, whereas clearer conditions would favor the 20°C threshold. Historical August climatology for the city places typical maxima around 22–24°C, underscoring how current steering patterns and model consensus have shifted the distribution downward. Updated model cycles and observational data from the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management will provide the next refinement before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$725End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched probabilities for 19°C and 20°C as Warsaw’s highest temperature on August 23 stem from ensemble spread in short-range numerical weather prediction models, particularly the ECMWF and GFS runs, which show modest variability in daytime maximums under a transitional late-summer pattern. A weakening high-pressure ridge and light northeasterly flow are limiting strong warm advection while increasing the influence of diurnal heating and boundary-layer mixing; any increase in low-level moisture or partial cloud cover could cap the peak near 19°C, whereas clearer conditions would favor the 20°C threshold. Historical August climatology for the city places typical maxima around 22–24°C, underscoring how current steering patterns and model consensus have shifted the distribution downward. Updated model cycles and observational data from the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management will provide the next refinement before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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