**Recent forecasts for Warsaw on August 21, 2026, converge on a daily maximum of 24–25°C, modestly above the late-August climatological average of ~22–23°C.** Multiple sources, including the UK Met Office, BBC Weather, and timeanddate.com, project highs near 25°C (77–78°F) under partly cloudy to overcast skies with light southwesterly winds and a chance of early showers. AccuWeather’s extended outlook and ensemble guidance place similar values in the 24–25.5°C range, consistent with modest warm-air advection and daytime heating under stable high pressure. **Market-implied odds favor 25–26°C because these align directly with the current model consensus, while the narrow spread between those two bins reflects typical short-range uncertainty in maximum temperature.** Key differentiating factors include variable cloud cover (which can suppress peak readings by 1–2°C), the timing and intensity of any showers, and boundary-layer mixing. Clearer breaks in the afternoon could push readings toward 26°C or briefly higher, whereas persistent overcast or earlier precipitation would cap the day closer to 24–25°C. Ensemble spreads from ECMWF and GFS remain modest at this lead time, limiting the probability of outliers above 27°C or below 24°C. **With resolution only ~48 hours away, traders are weighting the latest model runs and observational trends heavily, as small shifts in forecast guidance can quickly reprice the closely matched leading outcomes.**
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 21?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 21?
26°C 38%
25°C 32%
27°C 17%
24°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
3%
24°C
9%
25°C
32%
26°C
38%
27°C
17%
28°C or higher
3%
26°C 38%
25°C 32%
27°C 17%
24°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
18°C or below
$482 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$492 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$292 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$93 Vol.
1%
22°C
$0 Vol.
1%
23°C
$33 Vol.
3%
24°C
$28 Vol.
9%
25°C
$26 Vol.
32%
26°C
$73 Vol.
38%
27°C
$133 Vol.
17%
28°C or higher
$94 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts for Warsaw on August 21, 2026, converge on a daily maximum of 24–25°C, modestly above the late-August climatological average of ~22–23°C.** Multiple sources, including the UK Met Office, BBC Weather, and timeanddate.com, project highs near 25°C (77–78°F) under partly cloudy to overcast skies with light southwesterly winds and a chance of early showers. AccuWeather’s extended outlook and ensemble guidance place similar values in the 24–25.5°C range, consistent with modest warm-air advection and daytime heating under stable high pressure.
**Market-implied odds favor 25–26°C because these align directly with the current model consensus, while the narrow spread between those two bins reflects typical short-range uncertainty in maximum temperature.** Key differentiating factors include variable cloud cover (which can suppress peak readings by 1–2°C), the timing and intensity of any showers, and boundary-layer mixing. Clearer breaks in the afternoon could push readings toward 26°C or briefly higher, whereas persistent overcast or earlier precipitation would cap the day closer to 24–25°C. Ensemble spreads from ECMWF and GFS remain modest at this lead time, limiting the probability of outliers above 27°C or below 24°C.
**With resolution only ~48 hours away, traders are weighting the latest model runs and observational trends heavily, as small shifts in forecast guidance can quickly reprice the closely matched leading outcomes.**
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,746End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts for Warsaw on August 21, 2026, converge on a daily maximum of 24–25°C, modestly above the late-August climatological average of ~22–23°C.** Multiple sources, including the UK Met Office, BBC Weather, and timeanddate.com, project highs near 25°C (77–78°F) under partly cloudy to overcast skies with light southwesterly winds and a chance of early showers. AccuWeather’s extended outlook and ensemble guidance place similar values in the 24–25.5°C range, consistent with modest warm-air advection and daytime heating under stable high pressure.
**Market-implied odds favor 25–26°C because these align directly with the current model consensus, while the narrow spread between those two bins reflects typical short-range uncertainty in maximum temperature.** Key differentiating factors include variable cloud cover (which can suppress peak readings by 1–2°C), the timing and intensity of any showers, and boundary-layer mixing. Clearer breaks in the afternoon could push readings toward 26°C or briefly higher, whereas persistent overcast or earlier precipitation would cap the day closer to 24–25°C. Ensemble spreads from ECMWF and GFS remain modest at this lead time, limiting the probability of outliers above 27°C or below 24°C.
**With resolution only ~48 hours away, traders are weighting the latest model runs and observational trends heavily, as small shifts in forecast guidance can quickly reprice the closely matched leading outcomes.**
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,746End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent forecasts for Warsaw on August 21, 2026, converge on a daily maximum of 24–25°C, modestly above the late-August climatological average of ~22–23°C.** Multiple sources, including the UK Met Office, BBC Weather, and timeanddate.com, project highs near 25°C (77–78°F) under partly cloudy to overcast skies with light southwesterly winds and a chance of early showers. AccuWeather’s extended outlook and ensemble guidance place similar values in the 24–25.5°C range, consistent with modest warm-air advection and daytime heating under stable high pressure. **Market-implied odds favor 25–26°C because these align directly with the current model consensus, while the narrow spread between those two bins reflects typical short-range uncertainty in maximum temperature.** Key differentiating factors include variable cloud cover (which can suppress peak readings by 1–2°C), the timing and intensity of any showers, and boundary-layer mixing. Clearer breaks in the afternoon could push readings toward 26°C or briefly higher, whereas persistent overcast or earlier precipitation would cap the day closer to 24–25°C. Ensemble spreads from ECMWF and GFS remain modest at this lead time, limiting the probability of outliers above 27°C or below 24°C. **With resolution only ~48 hours away, traders are weighting the latest model runs and observational trends heavily, as small shifts in forecast guidance can quickly reprice the closely matched leading outcomes.**
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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